Global Market Highlights
DJIA declined by -0.76% on Tuesday (25/06), while the S&P 500 (+0.39%) and Nasdaq (+1.26%) managed to rebound. Wall Street closed mixed, with a positive catalyst coming from the release of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index for May-2024, which rose to its positive level of 0.18 (vs -0.26 in Apr-2024). Meanwhile, negative sentiment came from the release of CB Consumer Confidence for Jun-2024, which fell to 100.4 (vs 101.3 in May-2024). Additionally, investors are in a wait-and-see ahead of the Core PCE Price Index data for May-2024, which will be released at the end of this week. Today the market will be looking forward to several data releases such as: 1) Germany GfK Consumer Confidence Jul-2024; 2) US New Home Sales May-2024; 3) US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change Jun/21.
Domestic Update
The Ministry of Finance reported that state spending reached IDR1,145.3 trillion in 5M24, an increase of +14% YoY. The majority of the budget was directed towards central government spending, reaching IDR824.3 trillion (+15.4% YoY). MNCS Comment: We note that state spending realization has reached 34.4% of the FY24 target of IDR3,325 trillion. Meanwhile, state revenue until 5M24 accumulated to IDR1,123 trillion, a decrease of -7.1% YoY (40.1% of the target). Although this has resulted in a deficit of IDR21.8 trillion (0.1% of GDP), we view the utilization of the Excess Budget Financing (SILPA) from FY23, which reached ~IDR200 trillion, as a potential buffer for the budget. We expect continued increases in state spending moving forward, providing a cushion for the economy.
Company News
1. CAMP IJ will distribute a cash dividend for FY23 amounting to IDR117.7 billion, or IDR20 per share (Emiten News). MNCS Comment: We estimate that CAMP will offer a dividend yield of 4.8%. Dividend payout ratio is lower than previous year, at 92.4% (vs 97.1% in FY22). Cum date on July 1st, 2024. CAMP is currently trading at 2.51x PBV.
2. SMRA IJ will distribute a cash dividend for FY23 amounting to IDR148.6 billion, or IDR9 per share (Emiten News). MNCS Comment: This dividend distribution is higher than previous year with DPR up to 19.4% (vs. 18.5% in FY22) in line with a rise in revenue of +16.4 YoY and a net profit reaching IDR766 billion (+22.5% YoY). We estimate that SMRA will offer a dividend yield of 1.8%. Cum date in the negotiation market and regular market on June 28th, 2024. SMRA is currently trading at 4.64x/0.8x PER/PBV.
3. DOID IJ experienced a spike in net loss reaching USD19.08 million (+2,983.1% YoY) in 1Q24 (Emiten News). MNCS Comment: Amidst of an increase in revenue of +4.1% YoY, the company booked a spike in net loss of +2,983.1% YoY in 1Q24 due to an increase in cost of revenue (+4.61% YoY), financial expenses (+63,3% YoY), and other expenses (+1,840.7% YoY). Furthermore, unexpected high rainfall also challenges company productivity. However, management remains optimistic that they can achieve the volume target in FY24. DOID is currently trading at 1.2x PBV.
IHSG Updates
The JCI declined slightly by -0.09% to 6,882.70 on Tuesday (25/06), despite a significant net foreign inflow of IDR7.96 trillion, mainly resulted from the crossing of AMMN shares. Most sectors weakened and slowed the index down, led by the consumer cyclicals sector (-1.72%) and followed by the transportation & logistic sector (-0.86%). Conversely, the industrial sector led the gain (+0.68%) and followed by the infrastructures sector (+0.14%). The index weakened amidst positive performance from most of the Asian markets. The sentiment of credit restructuring extension to 2025 seemed to influence the sell-off actions in the big banks, which then likely asserted pressure to the index. The Rupiah closed higher at IDR16,375/USD. We estimate that the JCI will move in the price range of 6,819-6,914. Today's recommendations: ACES, BRIS, ICBP, MDKA.
Corporate Actions
Cum Dividend: BRPT (IDR0.873/share), PBSA (IDR13/share)
AGMS: TOWR
Disclaimer On
