Global Market Highlights
The DJIA climbed by +0.41% on Tuesday (02/07), followed by the S&P 500 (+0.62%) and the Nasdaq (+0.84%). Wall Street continued its strengthening as the 10Y US Treasury yields contracted by 4.9bps to 4.43%. The market seemed to still assess The Fed Chair Powell’s remarks, in which a dovish tone was implied, stating that The Fed needs stronger evidence to ensure the pressure of recent softer inflation readings before making the rate-cut decision. Today the market will be looking forward to several data releases such as: 1) Japan Jibun Bank Services PMI Final Jun-2024; 2) China Caixin Services PMI Jun-2024; 3) US Balance OF Trade May-2024.
Domestic Update
BPS reported 1.14 million foreign tourist arrivals in Indonesia in May-2024 (+7.36% MoM/ +20.11% YoY). On a YTD basis, the volume has reached 5.24 million (+23.78% YoY), marking the highest in four years. MNCS Comment: The YTD achievement is in line with the government’s expectation to book 9.5-14.3 million foreign tourists visits in FY24E (vs 11.68 million in FY23), representing 33.6%-55.2% of the annual target. The international arrivals during May-2024 mostly came from China (53.98%), India (29.38%), Japan (28.41%), Australia (20.50%), Malaysia (18.26%), and Singapore (10.22%). We assume that the factors of Rupiah weakening and international holiday momentum might contribute to this surge. Additionally, we note that the tourism number is showing a gradual recovery, in motion towards the volume before Covid-19.
Company News
1. NCKL IJ will distribute dividends for FY23 amounting toIDR 1.7 trillion or equivalent to IDR26.7/share (Kontan). MNCS Comment: We estimate a potential yield of ~2.7%. The DPS and payout ratio is higher than previous year, at 30.0% (vs. IDR22.2 per share & DPR at 26.1% in FY22). This is in line with the company's good performance in FY23 which managed to record an increase in net profit (+54% YoY), sales volume (+97.9% YoY), and a surge in revenue (+149.4% YoY). NCKL is currently trading at 15.75x/2.54x PER/PBV.
2. SIMP IJ will distribute dividends for FY23 amounting to IDR 155 billion or equivalent to IDR10/share (Emiten News). MNCS Comment: This dividend distribution will offer a potential yield of ~2,7% with payout ratio of 21.1%. We note that DPS in FY23 is lower than the previous year, amounting to IDR15/share in line with a decline in net profit of -38.6% YoY and a drop in sales of -10.1% YoY. Cum date in the regular market and negotiated market on July 5th, 2024. SIMP is currently trading at 4.71x/0.33x PER/PBV.
3. MAPA IJ will distribute dividends for the FY23 amounting to IDR142.5 billion or equivalent to IDR5/share (Emiten News). MNCS Comment: This dividend distribution offers a potential yield of ~0.7%. The DPS and payout ratio is higher than previous year, at 10.2% (vs. IDR 4/share & DPR at 9.8% in FY22) along with an increase in net profit (+18.1% YoY) driven by an increase in sales (+38.3% YoY). Cum date in the regular market and negotiated market on July 8th, 2024. MAPA is currently trading at 18.74x/3.52x PER/PBV.
IHSG Updates
The JCI weakened by -0.20% to 7,125.14 on Tuesday (02/07), amid a net foreign buy of IDR488.03 billion. The majority of sectors experienced declines and dragged down the index, led by the transportation sector (-1.51%) and followed by the healthcare sector (-1.10%). On the other hand, sectors that saw gains were led by the property and real estate sector (+0.53%) and followed by the technology sector (+0.13%). The index underwent profit-taking after recording four consecutive days of gains (+3.7%). Meanwhile, Asian markets closed mixed, with investors tending to wait and see ahead of the release of China's Caixin PMI services data for Jun-2024 and the Fed's FOMC meeting. The Rupiah closed lower at IDR16,395/USD. We estimate that the JCI will move in the price range of 7,075-7,161. Today's recommendations: ADRO, BRIS, BSDE, DSNG.
Corporate Actions
Cum Dividend: AMAN (IDR1/share), ASDM (IDR40/share), HOKI (IDR1/share)
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