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11 Juni 2024

Fixed Income Report June 11, 2024

Global Market Updates     
• Wall Street equities closed higher on June 10, with the DJI increased by +0.18%, the S&P 500 rose by +0.26%, and the Nasdaq closed up by +0.35%.
• Stock indexes reversed early losses to close with slight gains on Monday. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit new records as investors braced the Fed policy decision and key inflation data later in the week. Higher bond yields, driven by stronger-than-expected May payroll and earnings reports, capped market gains. However, energy stocks rose as WTI crude prices surged over +2% to a 1-week high. 
• The 10-yr UST yields rose by +4.0 bps to 4.47%, while the 2-yr yields remained unchanged at 4.87%. T-notes hit their lows Monday afternoon following weak demand at the Treasury’s USD58bn auction of 3-year T-notes.
• The US consumer inflation expectations for the upcoming year eased to 3.2% in May 2024, down from 3.3% in April. Additionally, the median one-year-ahead expected earnings growth was unchanged at 2.7%, while unemployment expectations rose to 38.6% from 37.2%.
• The Eurozone Sentix investor confidence index climbed 3.9 points to a 2-year high of 0.3 in June, surpassing the forecast of -1.7 and signaling an improved economic outlook.
• Global bond yields closed higher on Monday: the German bund yield rose by +5.0 bps to 2.67%, while the 10-yr UK gilt yield surged by +6.0 bps to 4.32%, and the Japanese 10-yr JGB yield closed up by +6.8 bps to 1.04%.
 
Domestic Market Updates 
• The Indonesian benchmark series of LCY government bond moved lower on June 10, with the 10-yr benchmark yield  surged by +6.94 bps to 6.95%, while the 2-yr yield advanced by +5.69 bps to 6.58%.
• The IDR weakened against the USD on Monday (USD/IDR rose by +0.52% to 16,280), as markets anticipated the US interest rate decision on Wednesday, with expectations of rates being maintained, this further pressured the rupiah.
• As of June 6, 2024 settlements data shows a net purchase of IDR52.94tn. Non-residents recorded a net sale of IDR36.02tn in the SBN market, a net sale of IDR8.01tn in the equity market, and a net purchase of IDR101.34tn in SRBI.
• In Friday's SRBI auction, investors submitted higher total bids of IDR65.2tn compared to the previous auction of IDR60.7tn. However, Bank Indonesia awarded fewer bids, amounting to IDR21.9tn down from IDR23.0tn previously. The winning interest rates remained steady at 7.19%, 7.38%, and 7.43% for the 6, 9, and 12-month tenors.
• In Monday's Indo-GB series trading, FR0100 and PBS032 garnered significant interest in outright transactions, with the highest trade volumes of IDR2.09tn and IDR1.59tn, respectively. Additionally, FR0081, PBS032, and FR0100 showed high trading frequency.
 
Market Forecast 
• Given the recent developments that unfolded within the global and domestic markets, we expect the 10-yr Indo GB yield to move within the range of 6.85-7.10% for today.
• Attractive Indo GB series to be traded today : FR0081, FR0064, FR0101, FR0087, FR0091, FR0075. 
 
 
Disclaimer On

FR81 FR64 FR101 FR87 FR91 FR75

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