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Company Update

10 Juni 2024

Fixed Income Report June 10, 2024

Global Market Updates     
• Wall Street equities closed in the red on June 7, with the DJI fell by -0.22%, the S&P 500 edged down by -0.11%, and the Nasdaq declined by -0.23%.
• US stocks recovered from early losses and briefly moved higher on Friday morning before pulling back, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 achieving new record highs and the Dow reaching a 2-week high. The US May nonfarm payroll report provided support, as strong job data mitigated concerns of an economic slowdown impacting corporate profits.
• The 10-yr UST yields surged by +15.0 bps to 4.43%, while the 2-yr yields increased by 15.0bps to 4.87%. The Treasury yields spiked on Friday following a strong nonfarm payrolls report for May, sparking worries among investors that the Fed could delay rate cuts.
• The US nonfarm payrolls added a robust +272,000 jobs in May, exceeding expectations of +180,000. US average hourly earnings increased by +0.4% MoM and +4.1% YoY, surpassing expectations of +0.3% MoM and +3.9% YoY. However, the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose by +0.1 to 4.0%, versus expectations of no change at 3.9%.
• Meanwhile in Euro, the ECB's preferred wage measure, Eurozone Q1 compensation per employee, increased by +5.1% YoY, higher than the expected +4.6% YoY, and up from +4.9% YoY in Q4.
• In Asia, China's May exports grew by +7.6% YoY, exceeding expectations of +5.7% YoY. This marks the strongest export growth in four months and provides a positive signal for global trade.
• Global bond yields closed higher on Friday: the German bund yield rose by +7.1 bps to 2.62%, while the 10-yr UK gilt yield climbed by +8.7 bps to 4.26%, and the Japanese 10-yr JGB yield closed up by +1.2 bps to 0.98%.
 
Domestic Market Updates 
• The Indonesian benchmark series of LCY government bond were mixed on June 7, with the 10-yr benchmark yield  fell by -1.34 bps to 6.88%, while the 2-yr yield jumped by +9.23 bps to 6.53%.
• The IDR closed stronger against the USD on Friday (USD/IDR fell by -0.40% to 16,195). The rupiah appreciated amid rising demand for the dollar, while increased forex reserves in May potentially stabilizing the exchange rate further.
• Indonesia's forex reserves reached USD139.0bn in May 2024, up from USD136.2bn in April 2024. This increase was largely driven by tax and service revenues, along with the government's issuance of global bonds.
• The government is set to conduct SUN auctions in local currencies on Tuesday, aiming for an indicative target of IDR22tn. The auctions will feature new issuances of SPN03240911 and SPN12250612, along with the reopening of FR101, FR100, FR98, FR97, and FR102. We anticipate the bid-to-cover ratio to fall between 1.7x and 2.8x.
• In Friday's Indo-GB series trading, FR0100 and PBS032 garnered significant interest in outright transactions, with the highest trade volumes of IDR1.69tn and IDR1.04tn, respectively. Additionally, PBS032, FR0081, and FR0100 showed high trading frequency.
 
Market Forecast 
• Given the recent developments that unfolded within the global and domestic markets, we expect the 10-yr Indo GB yield to move within the range of 6.85-7.10% for today.
• Attractive Indo GB series to be traded today : FR0081, FR0059, FR0064, FR0099, FR0087, FR0075. 
 
 
Disclaimer On

FR81 FR59 FR64 FR99 FR87 FR75

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