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Company Update

12 Juli 2024

Fixed Income Report July 12, 2024

Global Market Updates     
• Wall Street equities settled mixed on July 11, with the DJIA rose by +0.08%, the S&P 500 slid by -0.88% and the Nasdaq closed down by -1.95%.
• Stock indexes diverged on Thursday, with the DJI reaching a 7-week high and the Nasdaq falling to a 1-week low. The broader market was weighed down as a shift away from mega-cap tech stocks pushed the S&P 500 off its new record high.
• The 10-yr UST yields fell by -8.0 bps to 4.20%, while the 2-yr yields dipped by -12.0 bps to 4.50%. Treasury yields tumbled on Thursday as weaker inflation data strengthened expectations of a forthcoming interest rate cut.
• The US June CPI dropped to +3.0% YoY from +3.3% YoY in May, exceeding the expected +3.1%. The June core CPI also decreased to a three-year low of +3.3% YoY from +3.4% YoY in May, surpassing expectations of remaining at +3.4% YoY.
• US weekly initial unemployment claims fell by 17,000 to a six-week low of 222,000, beating expectations of 235,000. Continuing claims unexpectedly dropped by 4,000 to 1.852 million, against an anticipated rise to 1.860 million, indicating a stronger labor market.
• Meanwhile, in Europe, the British economy experienced a +0.4% MoM growth in May 2024, following a period of stagnation in April, and surpassing the expected +0.2% rise.
• Global bond yields were mixed on Thursday: the 10-yr German bund yield fell by -7.0 bps to 2.46%, the 10-yr UK gilt yield fell by -5.2 bps to 4.07%, and the Japanese 10-yr JGB yield grew by +0.5 bps to 1.09%.
 
Domestic Market Updates 
• The Indonesian benchmark series of LCY government bond were mixed on July 11, with the 10-yr benchmark yield fell by -0.73 bps to 6.99%, while the 2-yr yield rose by +0.62 bps to 6.67%.
• The IDR strengthened against the USD on Thursday amid growing expectation of a Fed rate cut, with the USD/IDR exchange rate dropping -0.28% to 16,195.
• As of May 2024, the Financial Services Authority (OJK) recorded that banking credit grew by 12.15% YoY to IDR7,376 trillion. The quality of credit remained stable with a gross NPL of 2.34% and a net NPL of 0.79%.
• In Thursday's Indo-GB series trading, FR0100 and FR0101 attracted significant interest in outright transactions, with the highest trade volumes of IDR3.08tn and IDR1.92tn, respectively. Additionally, PBS0038, FR0100, and FR0097 were the most actively traded series.

Market Forecast 
• Given the recent developments that unfolded within the global and domestic markets, we expect the 10-yr Indo GB yield to move within the range of 6.85-7.10% for today.
• Attractive Indo GB series to be traded today : FR0081, FR0084, FR0087 , FR0098, FR0092. 
 
 
Disclaimer On

FR81 FR84 FR87 FR98 FR92

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