Global Market Highlights
DJIA strengthened +0.33% on Friday (01/09), followed by the S&P500 (+0.18%) while the Nasdaq (-0.02%). Wall Street closed mixed again, with investors paying close attention to the release of employment market data. It was recorded that non-farm payroll in Aug-2023 was 187k, or higher than the consensus of 170k. It is feared that this could influence the Fed's hawkish policy in the future. Today, the market will be looking toward several data releases such as: 1) Germany Balance of Trade Jul-2023; 2) Germany Exports MoM Jul-2023; 3) Germany Imports MoM Jul-2023.
Domestic Update
• BPS reported that the inflation rate in Aug-2023 was +3.27% YoY, while the core inflation was at +2.18% YoY. On a monthly basis, there was a deflation of -0.02% MoM. MNCS Comment: The inflation rate is below the consensus estimate of +3.33% YoY. Notably, the transportation sector contributed the most, accounting for 1.18% with an increase of +9.65% YoY. Moving forward, we anticipate the inflation rate to follow a moderating trend, especially with the end of the low base in August 2023 and the majority of food commodity prices being well-controlled.
Company News
1. ITMG IJ will distribute an interim cash dividend in FY23E of USD199 million, or the equivalent of IDR2,660 per share (Emiten News). MNCS Comment: By doing so, ITMG will offer a dividend yield of up to 9.1%. Meanwhile, the payout ratio reached 64.8% of the net profit in 1H23 of USD306.95 million. Currently, ITMG is traded at the level of 3.58x/1.22x PER/PBV.
2. ANTM IJ recorded a net profit growth of +23.8% YoY, reaching IDR1.9 trillion in 1H23 (vs IDR1.5 trillion in 1H22) (Kontan). MNCS Comment: The increase in net profit was bolstered by a rise in revenue of +15.4% YoY. Notably, the sales volume of gold saw a marginal increase of +0.3% YoY, while ferronickel increased by +10.2% YoY. The NPM slightly increased to 8.7% (vs 8.1% in 1H22), aided by a decrease in OPEX of -25.3% YoY. Currently, ANTM is traded at the level of 12.43x/1.98x PER/PBV.
3. TINS IJ recorded a net profit decline of 98.5% YoY, amounting to IDR16.3 billion in 1H23 (vs IDR1.1 trillion in 1H22) (Kontan). MNCS Comment: This significant net profit decline was in line with a decrease in revenue by -38.9% YoY. This could be attributed to the drop in the average selling price of tin metal by -35% YoY, as well as a decrease in sales volume by -16.4% YoY. Meanwhile, a tax interest compensation of IDR145.4 billion served as a cushion for the net profit, where the operating profit reported a loss of IDR86.5 billion. Currently, TINS is traded at the level of 0.99x PBV.
IHSG Updates
JCI strengthened +0.35% to 6,977.65 on Friday (01/09), followed by net foreign buy reaching IDR504.92 billion. A number of sectors experienced strengthening and pushed up the index rate, led by the raw materials sector (+1.86%) followed by the energy sector (+1.54%). On the other hand, the sectors experiencing weakness were led by the transportation sector (-2.62%) followed by the infrastructure sector (-0.62%). The strengthening of the index was in line with the majority of Asian exchanges, where investors were watching China's Manufacturing PMI in Aug-2023 which is in an expansionary stage at the level of 51, after previously contracting in Jul-2023 at the level of 49.2. The Rupiah closed lower at IDR15,240/USD. We estimate that the JCI will move in the price range of 6,960-7,000. Today's recommendation: ADHI, ANTM, BMRI, HRUM.
Corporate Actions
Cum Dividend: IKBI (IDR15.78/share), SGER (IDR28/share)
AGMS: BOSS
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