Global Market Highlights
The DJIA rose by +0.35% on Thursday (28/09), followed by the S&P500 (+0.59%) and Nasdaq (+0.83%). Wall Street uniformly strengthened, supported by a decrease in UST yield to 4.6%. Furthermore, the final GDP growth in 2Q23 slowed to +2.1% QoQ (vs to +2.2% in 1Q23), and the data for pending home sales in August 2023 dropped by -7.1% MoM (vs -0.8% MoM consensus). This provides hope for the market that The Fed will maintain interest rates at the upcoming FOMC meeting. Today, the market will be looking toward several data releases such as: 1) US Core PCE Price Index YoY Aug-2023; 2) US PCE Price Index YoY Aug-2023; 3) US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final Sep-2023.
Domestic Update
Bank Indonesia (BI) reported that Third Party Funds (DPK) growth in Aug-2023 slowed to 6.4% YoY (vs +7.2% YoY of Jul-2023 realization). MNCS Comment: We view this deceleration in line with the diversification to other investment instruments offering more attractive yields. However, we anticipate DPK growth in FY23E to align with credit growth. We also observe that the bank's ability to innovate related to offered applications can drive DPK growth and strengthen CASA.
Company News
1. AALI IJ will distribute an interim cash dividend for the fiscal year FY23E of IDR157.8 billion, equivalent to IDR82 per share (Emiten News). MNCS Comment: Hence, we expect AALI to offer a dividend yield of 1.1%. Meanwhile, the payout ratio reaches 42.9% of net earnings in 1H23. Currently, AALI is traded at a level of 19.83x/0.68x PER/PBV.
2. HEXA IJ will distribute a dividend of USD41.2 million, equivalent to USD0.049162 per share (Emiten News). MNCS Comment: With Bank Indonesia's middle exchange rate on (27/09) at IDR15,464/USD, we estimate the dividend amount to be IDR760.2 per share. Thus, HEXA potentially offers a dividend yield of 11.5%. Currently, HEXA is traded at a level of 6.50x/2.05x PER/PBV.
3. IRRA IJ recorded a net profit decline of -64.7% YoY to IDR12.6 billion in 1H23 (vs IDR35.8 billion in 1H22) (Kontan). MNCS Comment: The drop in net profit is attributed to revenues contracting by -49.1% YoY to IDR225.0 billion (vs IDR442.2 billion in 1H22). However, we see efficiency improvements with the GPM increasing to 23.0% (vs 18.1% in 1H22). Currently, IRRA is traded at a level of 32.33x/1.64x PER/PBV.
IHSG Updates
The JCI was closed to commemorate the birth of Prophet Muhammad SAW on Thursday (28/09). Meanwhile, Asian markets were collectively down. This was influenced by growing market concerns over China's property crisis, namely Evergrande. In addition, Australia's retail sales performance in Aug-2023 grew by +0.2% MoM, a figure lower than the consensus estimate of +0.3% MoM. The Rupiah closed at IDR15,520/USD. We estimate the IHSG will move within the price range of 6,925-6,958. Today's Recommendations: ASII, BBCA, KLBF, WOOD.
Corporate Actions
EGMS: INDR, KARW, TRON
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