Global Market Highlights
The DJIA weakened by -0.47% on Friday (29/09), followed by the S&P500 (-0.27%), in contrast with the Nasdaq (+0.14%). Wall Street closed mixed due to the rising UST yield reaching 4.58%, influenced by the hawkish stance of The Fed. Additionally, concerns over a government shutdown further weighed on the index. Today, the market will be looking toward several data releases such as: 1) US ISM Manufacturing PMI Sep-2023; 2) US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Sep-2023; 3) Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI Final Sep-2023.
Domestic Update
The Bank of Indonesia (BI) reported that based on transaction data from 25-27 September 2023, non-residents in the domestic financial market recorded a net sale of IDR7.77 trillion. This consisted of a net sale of IDR7.86 trillion in the Government Securities market (SBN), a net sale of IDR2.07 trillion in the stock market, and a net purchase of IDR2.16 trillion in Bank Indonesia Rupiah Securities (SRBI). MNCS Comment: We observe continued selling activity by foreign investors in the SBN and stock markets, aligned with portfolio rebalancing due to The Fed's indication of keeping the benchmark interest rate higher for longer.
Company News
1. ERAA IJ has realized capex allocation of IDR472 billion in 1H23, along with the opening of 323 new outlets YtD (Kontan). MNCS Comment: We note that capex realization is at 67.4% of the FY23E target, while the opening of new outlets has reached 80.8% of the FY23E target. With the launch of new outlets, the company's future performance is expected to improve. Currently, ERAA is traded at a level of 7.86x/1.05x PER/PBV.
2. AMMN IJ recorded a decline in net profit of -78.9% YoY to USD118.8 million in 1H23 (vs USD562.5 million in 1H22) (Kontan). MNCS Comment: We observe AMMN's weak performance in 1H23, coinciding with the delayed export permit acquired on 1 July 2023. Revenue decreased by -58.1% YoY in 1H23 to USD580.5 million (vs USD 1.386.8 million in 1H22). Currently, AMMN is traded at a level of 119.44x/7.75x PER/PBV.
3. INTP IJ is optimistic about targeting a sales volume growth of +4.0% YoY in FY23E (Kontan). MNCS Comment: In FY22, the total cement sales volume was recorded at 17.6 million tons. With a projected growth of +4.0% YoY, the estimated sales volume in FY23E could reach 18.3 million tons. Meanwhile, the sales volume until 8M23 has reached 10.8 million tons, or 59.1% of the target has been achieved. Currently, INTP is traded at a level of 26.22x/1.86x PER/PBV.
IHSG Updates
The IHSG slightly strengthened by +0.03% to 6,939.89 on Friday (29/09), followed by a net foreign sell of IDR762.97 billion. The majority of sectors experienced gains, pushing the index forward, led by the transportation sector (+1.41%) followed by the financial sector (+0.83%). On the other hand, the sectors that declined were led by the raw materials sector (-1.13%), followed by the health sector (-0.57%). The index strengthened amidst mixed Asian markets, where investors tended to be optimistic ahead of the inflation data and PMI manufacturing release in Sep-2023. The Rupiah closed higher at IDR15,455/USD. We estimate the IHSG will move within the price range of 6,930-6,965 pending the release of Inflation and Core Inflation Sep-2023 and Tourist Arrivals Sep-2023 data. Today's Recommendations: AKRA, BMRI, INDY, LSIP.
Corporate Actions
EGMS: MAYA
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