Global Market Highlights
The DJIA strengthened by +0.10% on Monday (06/11), followed by S&P500 (+0.18%) and Nasdaq (+0.30%). Wall Street continued its upward momentum, with investors watching The Fed's comments that hint at a faster rate-cut in FY24F, following the previous release of job data in Oct-2023, which showed a decline. Today, the market will be looking toward several data releases such as: 1) China Balance of Trade Sep-23; 2) US Balance of Trade Sep-23; 3) EU PPI YoY Sep-23.
Domestic Update
BPS reported Indonesia's GDP growth in 3Q23 at +4.94% YoY/+1.6% QoQ. MNCS Comment: The GDP growth in 3Q23 is lower than the consensus estimate of +5.02% YoY and the realized 2Q23 figure of +5.17% YoY. We see this decrease as reasonable due to seasonal factors. By sector, some of the sectors driving economic growth are: 1) manufacturing (+5.20% YoY); 2) trade (+5.08% YoY); 3) construction (+6.39% YoY); 4) transportation & warehousing (+14.74% YoY). We view the Indonesian economy as relatively resilient amid global monetary policy tightening, currency depreciation, and high global geopolitical tensions.
Company News
1. SIMP IJ reported a -51.2% YoY decrease in net profit to IDR437.7 billion in 9M23 (vs IDR896.3 billion in 9M22) (Emiten News). MNCS Comment: The decrease in net profit is due to a -4.2% YoY decrease in revenue, driven by declining ASP. Additionally, COGS increased by +7.3% YoY, impacting the company's profitability. Meanwhile, the GPM/NPM of the company decreased to 18.3%/3.7% (vs 27.1%/7.3% in 9M22). Currently, SIMP is traded at a level of 10.41x/0.36x PER/PBV.
2. AMRT IJ reported a +25.1% YoY increase in net profit to IDR2.2 trillion in 9M23 (vs IDR1.8 billion in 9M22) (Emiten News). MNCS Comment: The increase in net profit is due to a +10.9% YoY increase in revenue to IDR80.0 trillion in 9M23 (vs IDR72.1 trillion in 9M22), along with margin expansion. We note that the GPM/NPM of the company increased to 21.1%/2.7% (vs. 20.5%/2.4% in 9M22). Currently, AMRT is traded at a level of 39.96x/9.63x PER/PBV.
3. MLBI IJ will distribute an interim dividend for the FY23E of IDR231.8 billion, or equivalent to IDR110 per share (Emiten News). MNCS Comment: Therefore, we estimate that MLBI will offer a dividend yield of 1.4%. With net profit reaching IDR692.7 billion by 9M23, the payout ratio reaches 33.5%. Currently, MLBI is traded at a level of 18.53x/13.70x PER/PBV.
IHSG Updates
The JCI strengthened by +1.33% to 6,878.84 on Monday (06/11), followed by a net foreign buy of IDR269.34 billion. Most sectors experienced gains, led by the technology sector (+2.31%), followed by the infrastructure sector (+1.77%). On the other hand, sectors that weakened led by the healthcare sector (-0.20%), followed by the non-cyclical sector (-0.08%). The index's strengthening aligns with movements in the Asian markets, where investors are watching Indonesia's 3Q23 GDP growth and wait and see approach ahead of the FX reserve data for Oct-2023. The Rupiah closed higher at IDR15,538/USD. We estimate the IHSG will move within the price range of 6,800-6,881. Today's Recommendations: ADRO, BBCA, MAPA, PTRO.
Corporate Actions
Cum Dividend : BRAM (IDR200/share), PBSA (IDR40/share)
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