Global Market Highlights
The DJIA strengthened by +0.16% on Monday (13/11), while S&P500 (-0.08%) and Nasdaq (-0.22%). Wall Street closed mixed, with investors wait and see ahead of the release of inflation data in Oct-2023. Meanwhile, the change in credit rating by Moody’s from stable to negative raised concerns in the market. Today, the market will be looking toward several data releases such as: 1) US Inflation Rate YoY Oct-23; 2) UK Unemployment Rate Sep-23; 3) EU GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2nd Est Q3.
Domestic Update
The Ministry of Agriculture has revised down the rice production target from 35 million tons in 2024 to 32 million tons. MNCS Comment: We assess this target revision in light of the El-Nino exposure affecting the yield. Consequently, we expect the government to take mitigating measures through rice procurement, either through imports or other domestic efforts, to secure the supply. If disruptions persist, there is a potential for increased inflation that could hinder future purchasing power.
Company News
1. MIDI IJ recorded a net profit increase of +26.5% YoY to IDR390.5 billion in 9M23 (vs IDR308.7 billion in 9M22) (Emiten News). MNCS Comment: This net profit increase was supported by a revenue growth of +11.8% YoY to IDR12.9 trillion (vs IDR11.6 trillion in 9M22). Additionally, margin expansion contributed to profitability. The company's GPM/OPM rose to 26.0%/4.4% (vs 25.5%/4.2% in 9M22). Currently, MIDI is traded at a level of 29.92x/4.27x PER/PBV.
2. MAPI IJ expanded its operations by collaborating with Flying Tiger Copenhagen, establishing three new outlets in Indonesia (Investor ID). MNCS Comment: We view MAPI's expansion efforts positively, as they can diversify the business portfolio and strengthen its footprint. With the addition of these outlets, we expect it to drive MAPI's performance going forward. Currently, MAPI is traded at a level of 13.46x/2.79x PER/PBV.
3. AXIO IJ will distribute an interim dividend of IDR52.6 billion for the fiscal year FY23E, or equivalent to IDR9 per share (Investor ID). MNCS Comment: Hence, we estimate that AXIO will offer a dividend yield of 4.4%. With a net profit of IDR87.5 billion in 9M23 (+72.1% YoY), the payout ratio reaches 60.1%. Currently, AXIO is traded at a level of 10.21x/2.25x PER/PBV.
IHSG Updates
The JCI strengthened by +0.43% to 6,838.31 on Monday (13/11), followed by a net foreign sell of IDR108.35 billion. Almost all sectors experienced gains and contributed to the index's momentum, led by the basic materials sector (+1.07%), followed by the infrastructure sector (+1.05%). On the other hand, the transportation sector experienced a decline (-0.20%). The index strengthened amid Asian markets closing mixed, with investors scrutinizing China's Oct-2023 outstanding loan growth data, which grew +10.9% YoY, or in line with consensus. Additionally, investors will wait and see ahead of the release of US inflation data in Oct-2023, which expected to decline compared to the realization in Sep-2023. The Rupiah closed lower at IDR15,700/USD. We estimate the IHSG will move within the price range of 6,800-6,860. Today's Recommendations: BBRI, ITMG, MDKA, NCKL.
Corporate Actions
Stock Split : EDGE (1:5)
Cum Dividend : MLBI (IDR110/share), TPMA (IDR30/share)
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