Global Market Highlights
DJIA was up +3.70% on Thursday (10/11), followed by the S&P500 (+5.54%) and the Nasdaq (+7.35%). Wall Street rebounded significantly supported by the release of inflation data in Oct-22 which was recorded at +7.7% YoY, or below the consensus estimate and Sep-22 at +8.00% YoY/+8.2% YoY, respectively. In addition, the decline in the yield on the US T-note 10Y to 3.83% also boosted the index's pace. Today, the market will be looking toward several data releases such as: 1) US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel Nov; 2) UK GDP YoY Sep; 3) Germany Inflation Rate YoY Final Oct.
Domestic Update
• The government will start offering the ST009 Savings Sukuk on 11-30 November 2022. MNCS Comment: ST009 is the 6th retail SBN issued in FY22E, the yield offered is 6.15% with a floating nature. With BI7DRRR at the level of 4.75%, the ST009 is considered to be attractive, making the spread to reach 140 bps.
• Furthermore, the national Covid-19 daily rate had increased by 6,294 active cases (10/11).
Company News
1. ITMG IJ posted a +97.71% YoY revenue growth in 9M22 to USD2.62 billion (vs USD1.32 billion in 9M21). Meanwhile, net profit rose +229.21% YoY to USD893.81 million (vs. USD271.50 million in 9M21) (Market Bisnis). MNCS Comment: The increase in revenue was supported by the increase in sales of the coal segment +98.48% YoY, in line with high global coal prices. Meanwhile, net profit increased as GPM and NPM expanded to 53.76%/48.66% (vs 40.13%/33.95% in 9M21). Currently, ITMG is traded at the level of 2.51x/1.54x PER/PBV.
2. WTON IJ posted a +47.96% YoY revenue growth in 9M22 to IDR3.67 trillion (vs IDR2.48 trillion in 9M21). Meanwhile, net profit increased +65.16% YoY to IDR89.21 billion (vs IDR54.01 billion in 9M21)(IQ Plus). MNCS Comment: The increase in revenue was supported by the growth of the concrete revenue segment by +59.26% YoY. Meanwhile, the increase in net profit was in line with the company's extensive margins, where GPM and OPM in 9M22 were recorded at 8.00%/5.81%, respectively (vs 4.81%/1.61% in 9M21). Currently, WTON is traded at the level of 15.24x/0.52x PER/PBV.
3. BIRD IJ targets a capex allocation of more than IDR 1.2 trillion in FY23F. The capex allocation is intended for the addition of a fleet of 5,000-8,000 units (Investor ID). MNCS Comment: With a fleet rejuvenation target in FY23F of 3,000-4,000 units, it is estimated that the total number of fleets operating in FY23F will reach 22,000-24,000 units (vs 20,000 units in FY22E). We view the fleet expansion as mobility recovery post-pandemic amid rising subsidized fuel prices. We believe that increasingly integrated services and business diversification through the logistics, shuttle bus and rental businesses can boost the company's performance. BIRD is currently traded at the level of 11.95x/0.80x PER/PBV.
IHSG Updates
JCI weakened -1.46% to 6,966.84 on Thursday (10/11), followed by net foreign sell which reached IDR897.76 billion. All sectors weakened and weighed on the index's pace, led by the transportation & logistics sector (-2.30%) and followed by the energy sector (-1.97%). The weakening of the index was in line with the weakening of Wall Street and Asian markets. We see that investors tend to wait and see ahead of the release of US inflation data on Oct-22 which is expected to slow down to 8% (vs 8.2% in Sep-22). On the other hand, the Rupiah exchange rate closed lower at IDR15,691/USD. We estimate that the JCI will move in the price range of 6,937-7,113 pending the release of Property Price Index YoY Q3 and Car Sales YoY Oct data. Today's recommendation: BBRI, BFIN, BIRD, CPIN.
Corporate Actions
Cum Dividend: SGRO (IDR90/share), PNGO (IDR50/share)
RUPS: ADCP
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