Global Market Highlights
The DJIA strengthened by +1.18% on Friday (03/05), followed by S&P 500 (+1.26%) and Nasdaq (+1.99%). Wall Street continued its solid rally as the UST yield declined to 4.5%. The decline was triggered by disappointing labor market data, with non-farm payrolls in Apr-2024 recording 175k, below the consensus estimate of 243k. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate in Apr-2024 rose to 3.9% (vs consensus at 3.8%). Today the market will be looking forward to several data releases such as: 1) China Caixin Service PMI Apr-2024; 2) Germany HCOB Services PMI Final Apr-2024; 3) US Fed Barkin Speech.
Domestic Update
Bank Indonesia reported based on transactions from April 29 to May 3, 2024, non-residents in the domestic financial market recorded net purchases of IDR3.06 trillion. The transactions were accumulated from net buys of IDR3.75 trillion in the SBN market, net outflows of IDR2.27 trillion in the stock market, and net buys of IDR1.58 trillion in SRBI. MNCS Comment: YTD until May 3, 2024, non-resident transactions have recorded net sales in the SBN market amounting to IDR53.76 trillion, net buys in the stock market amounting to IDR6.11 trillion, and net inflows of IDR13.87 trillion in SRBI. The decrease in inflows in the stock market is influenced by selling actions of big-cap companies following the release of earnings in 1Q24, which were below consensus estimates.
Company News
1. CPIN IJ recorded a significant increase in net profit of +195.0% YoY to IDR711.0 billion in 1Q24 (vs IDR241.0 billion in 1Q23) (Emiten News). MNCS Comment: The significant increase in net profit was mainly supported by a revenue increase of +9.3% YoY to IDR15.9 trillion (vs IDR14.6 trillion in 1Q23). Furthermore, moderate COGS growth of +5.3% YoY drove a gross profit increase of +44.5% YoY, and GPM reached 13.4% (vs 10.1% in 1Q23). CPIN is currently trading at 28.83x/2.96x PER/PBV.
2. ADMR IJ posted a net profit in 1Q24 of USD116.0 million, an increase of +37.0% YoY (vs USD84.7 million in 1Q23) (Emiten News). MNCS Comment: The growth in net profit was supported by a revenue increase of +15.2% YoY, along with a sales volume increase of +24% YoY. Additionally, a -20% YoY decrease in coal cash cost per ton and a -14% YoY reduction in royalty costs drove a gross profit increase of +16.7% YoY. Margins showed improvement with OPM/NPM increasing to 53.4%/42.3% (vs 47.9%/35.6% in 1Q23). ADMR is currently trading at 7.39x/3.14x PER/PBV.
3. CTRA IJ recorded a marketing sales of IDR3.3 trillion in 1Q24 (Kontan). MNCS Comment: This achievement reflects ~30% of the company’s total pre-sales target for FY24E at IDR11.1 trillion and surpassed the historical average of first quarter periods in the last 5 years. In the 1Q24, CTRA booked a +8.70% YoY growth in revenue and +17.08% YoY rise in net income. We anticipate this performance to continue throughout this year considering CTRA’s plan to launch several new projects, namely Citra Garden Serpong, CitraLand Gama City Medan, and Citra City Sentul. CTRA is currently trading at 11.65x/1.07x PER/PBV.
IHSG Updates
The JCI strengthened by +0.24% to 7,134.72 on Friday (03/05), followed by a net foreign sell reaching IDR859.52 billion. Several sectors experienced gains and drove the index, led by the healthcare sector (+1.71%) and followed by the technology sector (+1.08%). Meanwhile, sectors experiencing declines were led by the basic materials sector (-0.58%), followed by the transportation and logistics sector (-0.29%). The index rebounded amid mixed performances in Asian markets, followed by a decrease in the yield of IndoGB 10Y. We believe the strengthening is supported by investors anticipating weak US labor market data, thus providing optimism for future FFR cuts. The Rupiah closed higher at IDR16,185/USD. We estimate that the JCI will move in the price range of 7,096-7,153. Today's recommendations: ADRO, AKRA, ARTO, ICBP.
Corporate Actions
Cum Dividend: CMRY (IDR90/Share), DRMA (IDR36.4/Share)
AGMS: INDY
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