Global Market Highlights
The DJIA corrected by -1.06% on Wednesday (29/05), followed by the S&P 500 (-0.74%) and the Nasdaq (-0.58%). Wall Street lost its momentum amid further gains in the 10Y US Treasury Yield to 4.61%, hitting the highest level since May-2024. Sticky inflation and hawkish comments from the Fed also prolonged market concern of the rate cut agenda. Additionally, the slowdown in MBA Purchase Index to 138.4 bps also added pressure to the market. Investors also tend to wait and see for the release of the 1Q24 GDP growth estimate. Today the market will be looking forward to several data releases such as: 1) US GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2nd Estimate 1Q24; 2) US Real Consumer Spending QoQ 2ndEstimate 1Q24; 3) Japan Stock Investment by Foreigners May-2024.
Domestic Update
The Ministry of Finance reported the realization of Non-Tax State Revenue (PNBP) reached IDR203.3 trillion in 4M24. MNCS Comment: This amount is equivalent to 41.3% of the Indonesian State Revenue and Expenditure Budget (APBN) target in 2024. Compared to the same period last year, this actualization plummeted by -6.8% YoY (IDR217.8 trillion in 4M23), due to decreasing income of natural resources of both components, the oil and gas at IDR36.7 trillion (-10.4% YoY) and the non-oil and gas at IDR39.2 trillion (-31.9% YoY). The oil and gas realization was influenced by moderate Indonesian Crude Oil Price (ICP) and slower lifting. Meanwhile the non-oil and gas performance was mainly pressured by the softening in both prices and production volume of coal.
Company News
1. AMAR IJ will distribute dividends for FY23 amounting to IDR55 billion after achieving net profit of IDR177 billion Emiten News). MNCS Comment: This dividend distribution will offer a potential yield ~1.18% with DPS equivalent to IDR2.9 per share. Dividend payout ratio at 30.9%. AMAR is currently trading at 23.7x//1.3x PER/PBV.
2. BISI IJ will distribute dividends for FY23 amounting to IDR240 billion, or equivalent to IDR80 per share (Emiten News). MNCS Comment: We estimate a potential yield at approximately ~4.58%. The DPS FY23 is higher than previous year (vs IDR68 per share in FY22), in line with the net profit growth of +13.87% YoY. Moreover, dividend payout ratio reached 40.29% (vs 39.08% in FY22). BISI is currently trading at 1.5x PBV.
3. EAST IJ achieved 98% hotel occupancy during the long holiday period (Kontan). MNCS Comment: The occupancy level was mainly driven by the national holidays and joint leaves from April to May-2024. Until 4M24, the hotel recorded ~40k guests. We expect that the holiday seasons to support the company in achieving its target in FY24E, with aimed revenue of IDR110-120 billion (vs actualization of IDR106.4 billion in FY23) and net profit of IDR40-45 billion (vs realization of IDR38.4 billion in FY23). In 1Q24, EAST recorded a top-line of IDR22.5 billion (-7.8% YoY), reflecting 18.8%-20.5% of the goal. Meanwhile, its bottom-line stood at IDR6.8 billion (-15.1% YoY), representing 15.2%-17.1% of its target. EAST is currently trading at 1.10x PBV.
IHSG Updates
The JCI declined by -1.56% to 7,140.23 on Wednesday (29/05), followed by a net foreign sell of IDR1.66 trillion. Most sectors experienced declines and weighed on the index, led by the infrastructure sector (-2.28%) and followed by the technology sector (-2.19%). On the other hand, the sectors that showed gains were led by the transportation and logistics sector (+0.63%) and followed by the energy sector (+0.45%). The weakening of the index was in line with the movement of Asian markets, which were in the red zone. We believe investors tend to take a wait-and-see ahead of the release of the US core PCE Price Index for Apr-2024, which could influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy. The Rupiah closed lower at IDR16,160/USD. We estimate that the JCI will move in the price range of 7,110-7,200. Today's recommendations: AKRA, GOTO, MDKA, SMGA.
Corporate Actions
Cum dividend: IMPC (IDR4.5/share)
AGMS: MEDC, BUMI
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