Global Market Highlights
The DJIA contracted by -0.21% on Monday (13/05). Meanwhile, the S&P 500 closed flat (-0.02%) and the Nasdaq improved (+0.29%). Wall Street closed mixed as investors await the reading of US key inflation indicators this week, which will determine the expectations for The Fed’s rate cut decision this year. Today the market will be looking forward to several data releases such as: 1) Indonesia Retail Sales YoY Mar-2024; 2) Japan Producer Prices Index Apr-2024; 3) US Producer Prices Index Apr-2024.
Domestic Update
Bank Indonesia reports that the Consumer Confidence Index (IKK) in Apr-2024 climbed to 127.7 (vs123.8 in Mar-2024), marking the highest incline since May-2023. MNCS Comment: We note that this growth is supported by the optimism in all contributing components in the Current Economic Conditions Index (IKE) with highlight on the Current Earnings index at 124.2 (vs 118.1 in Mar-2024) and the Consumer Expectations Index (IEK), especially in the Business Activity Expectation Index at 132.6. All sub-indices strengthened following the one-round-only general election in Feb-2024 and the positive expectation for a new government shift.
Company News
1. TLKM IJ will distribute dividends amounting to IDR17.7 trillion, or equivalent to IDR178.5 per share. The cum dividend date for the regular and negotiation markets is May 15, 2024 (Emiten News). MNCS Comment: We estimate that TLKM will offer a dividend yield of ~5.8%. The DPS increased compared to FY22, which was IDR 167.6 per share, in line with the net profit increase of +18.3% YoY to IDR 24.6 trillion (payout ratio: 72%). TLKM is currently trading at 12.64x/2.16x PER/PBV.
2. TAPG IJ posted a net profit increase of +25.8% YoY to IDR370.8 billion in 1Q24 (vs IDR294.7 billion in 1Q23) (Emiten News). MNCS Comment: The solid net profit growth amidst flat revenue of -0.7% YoY in 1Q24, was supported by efficiency in COGS, which decreased by -4.9% YoY, leading to a gross profit increase of +12.1% YoY. Additionally, an increase in profit from JV by +31.0% YoY also supported the company’s net profit performance. The company's OPM/NPM increased to 16.9%/19.4% in 1Q24 (vs 10.6%/15.3% in 1Q23). TAPG is currently trading at 8.63x/1.14x PER/PBV.
3. SAMF IJ aims for IDR4.8 trillion sales and IDR472 billion net income in FY24 (Kontan). MNCS Comment: This target marks +7.54% YoY/+16.16% YoY growth from the revenue/net income actualization in FY23. Despite contractions in its 1Q24 performance, with revenue slew down by -12.72% YoY and the net profit declined by -12.47% YoY, the management remains optimistic to achieve the goal, supported by a new production line with additional production capacity up to 100,000 tons annually. SAMF is currently trading at 29.46x/2.40x PER/PBV.
IHSG Updates
The JCI rose by +0.15% to 7,099.26 on Monday (13/05), amidst net foreign sell pressure amounting to IDR 2.0 trillion. Several sectors experienced gains and supporting the index, led by the technology sector (+1.80%) followed by the energy sector (+0.37%). On the other hand, the sectors that experienced declines were led by the healthcare sector (-0.58%) and followed by the non-cyclical sector (-0.45%). The index strengthened amid mixed Asian markets, as investors responded to the release of the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) data for Apr-2024, which remained in the optimistic zone, and the projection of the US inflation rate for Apr-2024, which slowed down. The Rupiah closed lower at IDR16,080/USD. We estimate that the JCI will move in the price range of 7,071-7,123. Today's recommendations: AKRA, CPIN, ELSA, MARK.
Corporate Actions
Cum Dividend: TAPG (IDR91/share), MBAP (IDR64/dhare), BUAH (IDR25/share)
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