Global Market Highlights
DJIA strengthened +1.26% on Thursday (15/06), followed by the S&P500 (+1.22%) and the Nasdaq (+1.15%). Wall Street rallied as markets hoped for the Fed to end hiking its benchmark interest rate, following the release of the June 10 initial jobless claims data which hit a 19-month high of 262k (vs 249k on consensus). Today, the market will be looking toward several data releases such as: 1) US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel Jun; 2) US Michigan Current Conditions Prel Jun; 3) Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision.
Domestic Update
• Based on Bank Indonesia records, Indonesia's Foreign Debt (ULN) in Apr-2023 decreased -1.3% YoY and -1.8% MoM to USD403.1 billion (vs USD403.3 billion in Mar-2023). MNCS Comment: The government's external debt increased to USD 194.1 billion (vs USD 194.0 billion in Mar-2023) in-line with increased investment placements in the domestic SBN market in line with the maintained apetite of global market players, while private external debt decreased to USD 199.6 billion (vs USD 199.6 billion), leaving the external debt-to-GDP ratio is at a manageable level of 29.8%
Company News
1. PTBA IJ will distribute cash dividends for the FY22 fiscal year of IDR12.56 trillion (100% payout ratio), or equivalent to IDR1,094 per share (Kontan). MNCS Comment: Therefore, we estimate that PTBA will offer a dividend yield of 30.1%, or higher than FY21 at 14.9% and an average 5Y of 9.9%. Currently, PTBA is traded at the level of 8.99x/1.42x PER/PBV.
2. ANTM IJ will distribute cash dividends for the FY22 financial year with a payout ratio of 50%, or IDR1.91 trillion (Emiten News). MNCS Comment: With outstanding shares of 24.0 billion shares, the estimated DPS is IDR79.5 per share, or an increase of +105.2% YoY (vs IDR 38.74 per share). Thus, we estimate a dividend yield of 3.9%. Currently, ANTM is traded at the level of 7.37x/1.94x PER/PBV.
3. ASII IJ recorded car sales up to 5M23 reaching 231,596 units (Market Bisnis). MNCS Comment: Thus, sales of ASII cars in 5M23 grew +9.3% YoY (vs 211,859 units in 5M22). With domestic car sales up to 5M23 of 423,404 units, ASII's market share was lower at 54.7% (vs 55.2% in 4M23). Currently, ASII is traded at the level of 7.98x/1.39x PER/PBV.
IHSG Updates
JCI strengthened +0.21% to 6,713.79 on Thursday (15/06), followed by net foreign sell of IDR263.06 billion. The majority of sectors experienced strengthening and drove the index rate, led by the energy sector (+0.75%) followed by the raw materials sector (+0.62%). On the other hand, the sector that led to the decline was the transportation sector (-1.72%) followed by the property sector (-0.65%). The index strengthened amid mixed Asian and Wall Street stock exchanges, where investors responded positively to The Fed's decision to maintain the benchmark interest rate, as well as the release of data on the domestic trade balance in May-2023 which had a surplus of USD 440 million. The Rupiah closed lower at IDR14,945/USD. We estimate that the JCI will move in the price range of 6,689-6,744. Today's recommendation: ANTM, ERAA, MEDC, TLKM.
Corporate Actions
Bonus: IMPC (10:1)
Cum Dividend: DSNG (IDR30/share), IMPC (IDR33/share)
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