Global Market Highlights
The DJIA closed -0.76% lower on Wednesday (03/01), followed by the S&P 500 (-0.80%) and Nasdaq (-1.18%). Wall Street closed in the red as Fed’s December-23 FOMC minutes indicated restrictive rates to remain, curtailing investor’s expectation of a hasty rate pivoting in FY24E. On the other hand, supporting sentiments came from the weaker-than-expected US November-23 JOLTS job openings that fell to 8.79 million (vs. 8.82 million), subduing the UST 10-yr yield back 4 bps to 3.91%. Today the market will be looking forward to several data releases such as: 1) US PMI Services Final Dec-23; 2) Germany Inflation Rate Prel YoY Dec-23; 3) US Initial Jobless Claims Dec/30.
Domestic Update
The Ministry of Finance reports that the budget deficit for 2023 has decreased to 1.65%, equivalent to IDR 347.6 trillion. MNCS Comment: The budget deficit is significantly lower than previous estimates of 2.30% and 2.35% in FY22. This figure aligns with an increased revenue realization of +5.3% YoY, amidst a govt. spending growth of +0.8% YoY. This reflects a relatively solid macroeconomic position, despite negative global sentiments. Meanwhile, we anticipate an increase in spending realization in FY24E to boost consumer spending levels amid challenges from El-Nino and uncertainty surrounding the elections.
Company News
IHSG Updates
The JCI declined by -0.61% to 7,279.09 on Wednesday (03/01), followed by net foreign sell of IDR172.54 billion. Most sectors shrunk and slowed the index down, led by the healthcare sector (-0.92%) and followed by the consumer non-cyclicals sector (-0.82%). On the other hand, the growing sectors were led by the technology sector (+0.21%) and followed by the transportation & logistic sector (+0.12%). Most of the Asian markets also slumped as markets are still processing the impact of slowing inflation rate and the release of several macroeconomic data this week. The Rupiah closed lower at IDR15,480/USD. We estimate the IHSG will move within the price range of 7,265-7,340. Today's Recommendations: ARTO, ENRG, SMRA, TKIM.
