Global Market Highlights
DJIA weakened -1.78% on Thursday (17/02), followed by S&P 500 (-2.12%) and Nasdaq strengthened (-2.88%). Wall Street tumbled as Russia-Ukraine geopolitical tensions re-emerged with Russia continuing to add troops along the border, US President Joe Biden revealed that Russia's probability of invading Ukraine is very high. On the other hand, stock performance was further depressed after the Fed’s hawkish statement which supported a 100 bps rate hike in Jul-22 and would start to reduce the balance in 2Q22. The negative news came from the release of economic data where initial jobless claims 12-Feb reached 248,000 which exceeded the consensus at 219k, new home construction and licensing data (Housing Starts) for Jan-22 declined to 1.64 million, lower when compared to the consensus at 1.7 million. Today, the market will be looking toward several data releases such as: 1) US Fed Evans Speech; 2) US Existing Home Sales MoM; 3) Japan Inflation Rate YoY.
Domestic Update
• Indonesia Property Price Index rose 1.47% YoY in 4Q21 higher than the previous quarter of 1.41% YoY. Property sales contracted 11.6% YoY in 4Q21, improving from previous quarter contraction of 15.2% YoY. MNCS Comment: We see the improvement was attributable to favorable conditions including : 1) lower interest rate; 2) government tax relaxation and 3) better mobility in 4Q21 along with the decrease in Covid-19 daily cases. In FY22F, we still overweight the property sector on the back of Indonesia's strengthening economic recovery.
• Furthermore, the second dose of vaccination rate nationally has reached 66.3% or equivalent to 138.02 million people.
Company News
1. DMAS IJ targets marketing sales of IDR1.8 trillion in FY22E. This target will be supported by the sale of industrial land beside the sale of land or residential and commercial products (IQ Plus). MNCS Comment: We see that the company's optimism to achieve the target FY22E is supported by the potential of increasing demand for industrial land from the data center sector along with the economic recovery and the digitalization growth in Indonesia. DMAS is trading at the level of 11.16x/1.62x PER/PBV levels.
2. BFIN IJ recorded a net profit of IDR1.13 trillion in FY21, up +61.25% YoY (vs IDR701.59 billion in FY20). The company obtained IDR13.7 trillion value of new financing, up +79.8% YoY (Bisnis Indonesia). MNCS Comment: We see that the company succeeded in achieving a good profitability in FY21. In addition, the NPF ratio decreased to 1.25%, which was lower than the multi-finance industry average of 3.53%. BFIN is trading at the level of 17.64x/2.69x PER/PBV.
3. BDMN IJ recorded IDR1.6 trillion of net profit in FY21, rose by +56% YoY. Enterprise banking loans which consist of corporate, commercial and financial institution segments grew +6.2% YoY to IDR58.2 trillion (Kontan). MNCS Comment: We see that the company might continue its good performance in 2022 by strengthening corporate loans through its collaboration with MUFG and consumer loans through its subsidiary Adira Finance. BDMN is trading at the level of 12.59x/0.53x PER/PBV.
IHSG Updates
JCI weakened -0.22% to 6,835.12 on Thursday (17/02), followed by net foreign buys which reached IDR649.60 billion. A number of sectors weighed on the index, led by the energy sector (-0.96%) followed by the transportation sector (-0.69%) while the sector that supported the index was the cyclical sector (+0.57%) followed by the infrastructure sector (+0.47 %). Investors are indicated to take profit following the strengthened momentum that occurred in the last few trading days after the news of the escalating Russia-Ukraine conflict following statement by the west that Russia had not withdrawn troops and instead strengthened its position on the border. Meanwhile, the Ministry of Health noted that there were 63,956 new positive cases, bringing the total positive cases to 5 million (5,030,002). On the other hand, the Rupiah weakened at IDR14,318/USD level. We estimate that the JCI will move in the range of 6,760-6,850 while waiting for the current account data to be released. Today’s recommendation: BRPT, BBYB, CPRO, MYOR.
Corporate Action
RUPS: MSIN, SMCB, TBRA
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