Global Market Highlights
The DJIA strengthened by +0.38% on Monday (29/04), followed by the S&P 500 (+0.32%) and Nasdaq (+0.35%). Wall Street continued its uptrend as investors responded to positive earnings releases. Additionally, the decline in UST yields to 4.62% also contributed to the index's strength. Today the market will be waiting for several data releases, including: 1) China NBS Manufacturing PMI Apr-2024; 2) Germany Retail Sales MoM Mar-2024; 3) US Chicago PMI Apr-2024.
Domestic Update
BKPM reported that investment realization in 1Q24 reached IDR401.5 trillion, with FDI value reaching IDR204.4 trillion. MNCS Comment: With the investment target for FY24E reaching IDR1.650 trillion, the realization until 1Q24 reached 24.3%. We anticipate sustained growth in investment realization, supported by post-election certainty and Indonesia's resilient macroeconomy against global sentiment. Furthermore, we also anticipate that FDI realization can strengthen the positive balance of payments moving forward.
Company News
1. HRTA IJ will distribute a dividend of IDR15/share for FY23 (Kontan). MNCS Comment: After successfully recording net income growth of +20.6% YoY in FY23, the company decided to distribute a dividend with total DPS for FY23 distributed amounts to IDR15/share or equivalent to IDR69.07 billion. This dividend distribution will result in a potential yield of 3.8%. We note that the FY23 DPS is higher compared to the previous year, FY22, which was IDR12/share. Additionally, the Dividend Payout Ratio in FY23 is higher compared to FY22, at approximately 22.7% (vs 21.8% in FY22). HRTA is currently trading at 5.96x/0.93x PE/PBV.
2. EXCL IJ recorded a soaring net income growth of +168.12% YoY in 1Q24 (Kontan). MNCS Comment: This growth was driven by the rise in revenue +11.80% YoY (steady -0.2% QoQ) with the highest blended ARPU at IDR44k amidst a slight drop of subscribers at -0.4% YoY (or flattish +0.3% QoQ). Additionally, the effective cost management also contributed to this result where the opex increased slightly by +0.5% YoY or declined -7.9% QoQ. We view that the achievement in this period is currently on track with management’s outlook for FY24E. The revenue/net profit reflects 24.30%/36.49% of our estimation for FY24E. EXCL is currently trading at 1.18x PBV.
3. GOTO IJ booked a net loss of IDR861.91 billion in 1Q24 or lessened by -77.68% YoY (Kontan). MNCS Comment: This improvement was mainly supported by the increase in revenue +22.41% YoY with -31.94% YoY efficiency in operational costs and expenses. The e-commerce segment showed a notable development after acquiring TikTok Shop, recording a gain of IDR532.90 billion from a loss of IDR889.37 billion in 1Q23. Additionally, most of the segments still experienced loss but has significantly improved with the loss on the demand services segment (-90.18% YoY), the financial technology segment (-42.58% YoY), and the other segments (-50.92% YoY). GOTO is currently trading at 1.92x PBV.
IHSG Updates
The JCI rebounded by +1.70% to 7,155.78 on Monday (29/04), amidst a net foreign outflow of IDR400.88 billion. Most sectors soared and accelerated the index’s movement, with the healthcare sector jumping by +4.30% and followed by the energy sector (+2.46%). Meanwhile the transportation & logistic sector became the only sector that declined by -0.76%. The index bounced back after the release of Foreign Direct Investment into Indonesia (excluding banking and the oil & gas sectors) in 1Q24 showed a sharp spike at +15.5% YoY (vs +5.3% YoY in 4Q23). The other Asian markets also closed positively amidst the wait of several macroeconomic data this week. The Rupiah continued to close lower at IDR16,255/USD. We estimate that the JCI will move in the price range of 7,073-7,167. Today's recommendations: ISAT, MEDC, PGAS, TLKM.
Corporate Actions
AGMS: ASII, BBYB, GOOD
Disclaimer On
