16 Juni 2020
MNCS Morning Navigator 16 June 2020
Global Market Highlight
DJIA increased by +0.62% on Monday (15/06) followed by S&P 500 (+0.83%) and Nasdaq (+1.43%). The rally on technology stocks by more than 1% contributed to the index rising. Followed by JP Morgan, Citigroup, Bank of America and Wells Fargo increased at least by 0.8%. These rises occurred following a statement from the Fed that it would buy corporate bonds in the secondary market, expanding purchases of corporate debt despite the increase on Covid-19 cases in several states. Moreover, the market will look forward to several data releases today, such as: 1) US Retail Sales; 2) UK Employment Change; 3) Japan Interest Rate Decision.
Domestic Updates
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Indonesia’s Trade Balance recorded a surplus of USD2.09 billion in May 2020 from a deficit of USD350 billion on April 2020. While the market consensus estimated USD0.42 billion surplus in May 2020. Furthermore, exports in May 2020 reached USD10.53 billion, down by 13.40% MoM and 28.95% YoY, followed by imports in May 2020 reached USD8.44 billion, decreased by 32.65% MoM and 42.20% YoY.
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Indonesia's external debt at the end of April 2020 was recorded at USD400.2 billion, which consists of public sector (Government and central bank) external debt (USD192.4 billion) and private sector debt including SOEs (USD207.8 billion). Indonesia's external debt grew by 2.9% YoY higher than the growth in March 2020 of 0.6% YoY. This was caused by an increase in public external debt amid a slowdown in private external debt growth.
Company News
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SMGR IJ sales volume in May-20 decrease 38.50% YoY. This amount consisted of sales to the domestic market of 1.58 million tons (-42.56% YoY) and export sales of 354,860 tons (-10.29% YoY). (Kontan) MNCS comment: The Covid-19 pandemic are impacting both property and infrastructure so that a slowdown occured. SMGR is traded at 0.77x PBV, lower than peers.
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PTPP IJ recorded revenue that fell by 31.11% YoY to IDR3.41 trillion in 1Q20. While net profit decrease to 92.2% YoY, worth IDR13.32 billion in 1Q20 (Kontan) MNCS Comment: Construction sector is one of the most impacted by the Covid-19 pandemic, so PTPP's net profit decreased is something to be anticipated. PTPP is traded at 8.62x/0.35x PE/PBV.
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CSRA IJ posted revenue of IDR145.62 billion in 1Q20. Revenue increased by 34.1% YoY compared to IDR108.56 billion in 1Q19. The average selling price of crude palm oil (CPO) was higher by around 26% YoY, while the selling price of fresh fruit bunches (FFB) increased by around 24.2% YoY. Net profit increased by 449.7% YoY from IDR5.91 billion in 1Q19 to IDR32.50 billion in 1Q20. (Market Bisnis) MNCS Comment: The Plantation Companies are at advantage due to the increase on CPO Price, although some companies recorded a decline on sales volume. CSRA is traded at 25.06x/3.94x PE/PBV.
IHSG Updates
JCI slipped by -1.31% to 4,816.34 on Monday (15/06), followed by a net foreign sell reaching IDR712.03 billion. The weakening occurred after the announcement of trade balance data by the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) which showed a contraction in imports of up to -42.2% YoY indicating a sluggish business activity in the country amid a pandemic. Meanwhile, the Rupiah exchange rate against the USD was strengthening at IDR14,115. We estimate JCI will move in the range of 4,712-4,975 while waiting for Retail Sales as of Apr-2020. Today's recommendation: GGRM, TLKM, BBCA, MDKA.
Corporate Action
Cum Dividend Date: WIKA, RAJA, IMAS
Disclaimer On
GGRM,
TLKM,
BBCA,
MDKA,
CSRA,
SMGR,
PTPP
