GDP, Inflation and Unemployment Update
Key Takeaways
• 1Q22 Indonesia’s GDP grew +5.01% YoY only slightly below our forecast at +5.03% YoY.
• Expanding domestic output was also in line with solid macro data such as manufacturing PMI, CCI as well as improving mobility to pre-pandemic level even with the spread of Omicron variant that triggered 3rd wave outbreak.
• Inflation rose +0.95% MoM/+3.47% YoY in Apr-22, well above our forecast of +0.79% MoM/+3.31% YoY.
• The increase in inflation was driven by rising food and transportation prices as cooking oil prices jumped and fuel price adjustment.
• In addition, rising inflation was also attributable to seasonality factor during Ramadan festive momentum.
• We expect inflation to be at 3.70-4.36% YoY in FY22F.
• As the economy improves, unemployment rate fell to 5.83% in Feb- 22 but still higher than pre-pandemic level with informal workers continue to dominate along with high growth of digital economy.
Disclaimer On
