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Company Update

28 Mei 2024

Fixed Income Report May 28, 2024

Global Market Updates     
• Wall Street was closed on Monday, May 27, for Memorial Day. Meanwhile, global stock indexes closed higher: GDAX rose by +0.44%, HSI increased by +1.17%, and SSE closed up by +1.14%.
• The market will closely watch the Consumer Confidence report today, expected to remain steady. Thursday's pending home sales data and Friday's Core PCE report could significantly impact market trends and set the tone until the next FOMC meeting.
• In Euro, the Ifo Business Climate indicator for Germany was steady at 89.3 in May 2024, unchanged from the previous month, and below the forecast of 90.4. Meanwhile, business expectations improved to 90.4 from a downwardly revised 89.7, compared the expected 90.9.
• ECB governing council member Olli Rehn, in a Monday speech, emphasized the continued decline in euro area inflation, hinting at a possible interest rate cut next week. April's inflation held steady at 2.4%, marking seven months below 3%.
• In Asia, Japan's 10-year JGB yield climbed above 1%, marking a 12-year high, after BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda spoke on re-anchoring inflation expectations and the difficulty of estimating the neutral interest rate. Japanese yields have been pressured as the CB ended its negative rates policy and yield curve control program in March.
• Global bond yields were mixed on Friday, the German bund yield declined by -3.60 bps to 2.55%, while the 10-yr China GB yield edged down by -0.3 bps to 2.31%. The Japanese 10-yr JGB yield surged by +1.01 bps to 2.90%.
 
Domestic Market Updates 
• The Indonesian benchmark series of LCY government bonds ended lower on May 27, with the 10-yr benchmark yield grew by +1.30 bps to 6.87%, while the 2-yr yield edged up by +0.30 bps to 6.71%.
• The IDR depreciated against the USD at Monday’s close (USD/IDR rose by +0.45% to 16,065). The Rupiah weakened while most other Asian currencies strengthened, with the dollar index seen declining -0.14% to 104.58.  
• BI reported that M2 in Apr-2024 reached IDR8,928tn, rising by +6.9% YoY, slightly lower than 7.2% in Mar-2024. This growth was driven by a +5.5% YoY increase in narrow money (M1) and an +8.5% YoY increase in quasi money. M2 growth in Apr-2024 was primarily shaped by a +12.3% YoY rise in credit disbursement (vs 11.9% in Mar-2024) and a 25.8% YoY increase in net claims on the central government (vs 17.9% in Mar-2024).
• In Monday's Indo-GB series trading, FR0081 and FR0101 garnered significant interest in outright transactions, with the highest trade volumes of ID4.27tn and IDR1.65tn, respectively. Furthermore, SR015, PBS038, and FR0081 exhibited high trading frequency.
 
Market Forecast 
• Given the recent developments that unfolded within the global and domestic markets, we expect the 10-yr Indo GB yield to move within the range of 6.85-7.10% for today.
• Attractive Indo GB series to be traded today : FR0081, FR0086, FR0064, FR0101, FR0087, FR0096. 
 
 
Disclaimer On

FR81 FR86 FR64 FR101 FR87 FR96

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