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Company Update

20 Mei 2024

Fixed Income Report May 20, 2024

Global Market Updates     
• Wall Street equities closed near flat on May 17, with the DJI grew by +0.34%, the S&P 500 inched up by +0.12%, and the Nasdaq edged down by -0.07%. 
• US stock indexes closed mixed on Friday, consolidating just below this week's all-time highs. Stocks received support from dovish comments by Fed’s Bostic on Thursday evening, suggesting that if inflation moderates as expected and economic momentum continues, rate cuts could be considered toward the end of the year. 
• The 10-yr UST yields surged by +4.0 bps to 4.42%, while 2-yr yields rose by +5.0 bps to 4.83%. Treasuries faced pressure on Friday due to weakness in European government bonds. The losses intensified after Fed’s Bowman stated she expects inflation to remain elevated for some time.
• US April leading indicators dropped by -0.6% MoM, below expectations of -0.3% MoM, marking the largest decline in six months.
• Meanwhile in Europe, ECB’s Schnabel warned against consecutive interest rate cuts in June and July, citing lingering inflation risks and advocating for a cautious approach, which tempered market sentiment.
• In Asia, China's industrial production rose +6.7% YoY in April (vs. +4.5% in March), beating expectations of +5.5%. However, retail sales grew +2.3% YoY, below the forecast of +3.7%. New home prices fell -0.58% YoY and used home prices dropped -0.94% YoY, both marking the largest declines in 9.5 years.
Global bond yields moved higher on Friday, the German bund yield rose by +5.5 bps to 2.51%, while the 10-yr UK gilts yield finished up by +4.8 bps to 4.12%. The Japanese 10-yr JGB yield closed up by +2.20 bps 0.95%.
 
Domestic Market Updates 
• The Indonesian benchmark series of LCY government bonds ended higher on May 17, with the 10-yr benchmark yield lowered by -0.04 bps to 6.86%, resulting in a spread of +244 bps over the UST 10-yr yield.
• The IDR slightly weakened against the USD at Friday’s close (USD/IDR rose by +0.19% to 15,955), as market expectations shifted towards prolonged high interest rates following hawkish remarks from Fed officials on Thursday.
• Based on transaction data from May 13 to May 16, 2024, non-residents recorded a net purchase of IDR22.06tn. This comprised a net purchase of IDR5.30tn in SBN, a net sale of IDR2.40tn in the stock market, and a net purchase of IDR19.17tn in SRBI.
• In Friday's Indo-GB series trading, FR0100 and FR0086 garnered significant interest in outright transactions, with the highest trade volumes of ID1.81tn and IDR1.39tn, respectively. Furthermore, FR0081, FR0100, and FR0086 exhibited high trading frequency.
 
Market Forecast 
• Given the recent developments that unfolded within the global and domestic markets, we expect the 10-yr Indo GB yield to move within the range of 6.85-7.10% for today.
• Attractive Indo GB series to be traded today : FR0090, FR0064, FR0095, FR0087, FR0097. 
 
 
Disclaimer On

FR90 FR64 FR95 FR87 FR97

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