Global Market Update
• Yield on UST note fell along the curve as market jittered by the possibility of contagion risk after SVB collapse will trigger next financial crisis.
• The benchmark 2-year UST note yield experienced a steep decline and falling to below 4%. Now yield for short-term benchmark bond stood at 3.89%.
• At the same time, yield on the longer-term government bond of 10-year benchmark also fell 23 bps to 3.46%.
• US stock indices closed mix. Only Nasdaq Composite could avert the correction with a marginal appreciation of 0.05%.
• Dow Jones and S&P 500 recorded a decline of 0.87% and 0.73% respectively last night.
• European stock indices benchmark has experienced an extreme correction yesterday as Credit Suisse stock price dropped significantly.
Domestic Market Update
• Most of domestic currency government bond prices inched lower on Wednesday (03/15/23).
• Yield on the benchmark 10-year (FR0096) increased 3 bps to 3.75%.
• The IDR marginally strengthened against USD and closed at 15,382/USD on Wednesday (vs IDR15,385/USD last week).
• Yet, Indonesia’s 5-year CDS keeps on increasing and currently stood at 110.65 bps.
• Statistics Indonesia reported Indonesia’s trade balance surplus hit USD5.48bn and beating market expectation of USD3.27bn.
• Higher than expected trade surplus was driven by monthly import contraction of 13.68%.
• Indonesia's exports value was USD21.4 billion (-4.51% MoM) and consistently experienced a consecutive decline since Sep-22 in line with the downward trend in the prices of various commodities.
• Meanwhile, imports reached USD15.9 billion (-16.38% MoM) and have decreased in value since the beginning of the year.
• The decline in imports was mostly due to lower imports of raw and auxiliary materials which contracted 3.69% YoY in 2M23.
Market Projection
• Given the recent development on global and domestic market, we expect the 10 year Indo GB yield to move within a range of 6.75-6.95% for today.
• Attractive Indo GB series to be traded today : FR0063, FR0046, FR0081, FR0091, FR0096.
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