• Wall Street was closed on July 4 in observance of US Independence Day. Meanwhile, global stock indexes closed mixed: the DAX rose by +0.41%, the FTSE surged by +0.86%, and the SSEC declined by -0.83%.
• The US MBA mortgage applications declined by -2.6% for the week ending June 28. The purchase mortgage sub-index fell by -3.3%, and the refinancing mortgage sub-index dropped by -1.5%. Additionally, the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage increased by +10 bps to 7.03% from 6.93% in the previous week.
• The US trade deficit continued its upward trajectory in May 2024, reaching a troubling 19-month high of -USD75.1 billion (up from -USD74.5 billion in April).
• The markets now estimate a 9% chance of a -25 bp rate cut for the July 30-31 FOMC meeting, and a 67% chance for the September 17-18 meeting.
• The Eurozone construction sector contracted sharply in June 2024. The HCOB Eurozone Construction PMI fell to 41.8, down from 42.9 in May. This represents the second-steepest monthly drop since the pandemic, pointing to a major slowdown in construction activity.
• In Asia, Japan’s household spending unexpectedly contracted in May 2024, falling -1.8% YoY. This decline missed market expectations of a +0.1% rise and follows a +0.5% increase in April.
• Global bond yields were mixed on Thursday: the 10-yr German bund yield fell by -0.1 bps to 2.58%, the 10-yr UK gilt yield rose by +2.5 bps to 4.20%, and the Japanese 10-yr JGB yield slipped by -2.0 bps to 1.08%.
