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Company Update

07 Juni 2024

Fixed Income Report June 7, 2024

Global Market Updates     
• Wall Street equities ended mixed on June 6, with the DJI rose by +0.20%, the S&P 500 edged down by -0.02%, and the Nasdaq closed down by -0.09%.
• US stocks  were little changed on Thursday, stocks cooled following a strong rally that pushed the Nasdaq to a new high on Wednesday. Tech stocks led the way, with Nvidia surpassing Apple to become the second-largest US company. However, on Thursday, Nvidia shares fell over 1%, reducing the AI chip giant's market cap below USD3tn.
• The 10-yr UST yields fell by -1.0 bps to 4.28%, while the 2-yr yields remained flat at 4.72%. Treasuries gained support on Thursday after weekly US jobless claims exceeded expectations and Q1 unit labor costs were unexpectedly revised lower, suggesting dovish Fed policy.
• US unemployment claims surprise with an upward tick. Initial claims rose by 8,000 to 229,000, exceeding analyst expectations of 220,000. This unexpected increase raises concerns about a potential weakening in the labor market.
• The US trade deficit widened to USD74.6bn in April from USD69.4bn in March, the biggest in 1.5 years, posing a negative impact on GDP.
• The ECB cut its interest rate by 25 bps to 4.25% Thursday, following similar actions by central banks in Canada, Sweden, and Switzerland. Additionally, the ECB revised its 2024 Eurozone GDP forecast upward to 0.9% from 0.6% and its 2024 inflation forecast, ex.food and energy, to 2.8% from 2.6%.
• Global bond yields were mixed on Thursday: the German bund yield rose by +3.7 bps to 2.54%, while the 10-yr UK gilt yield fell by -1.0 bps to 4.17%, and the Japanese 10-yr JGB yield declined by -5.3 bps to 0.96%.
 
Domestic Market Updates 
• The Indonesian benchmark series of LCY government bonds remained flat on June 6, with the 10-yr benchmark yield  edged down by -0.04 bps to 6.86%, while the 2-yr yield decreased by -0.47 bps to 6.44%.
• The IDR gained ground against the USD at Thursday close (USD/IDR fell by 0.15% to 16,260), with market focus shifts to the upcoming US jobs report that may affect the rupiah. Furthermore, foreign capital flows and corporate dollar demand for dividend payments continue to exert pressure on the rupiah.
• The government and DPR have approved the key macroeconomic assumptions for the 2025 RAPBN, aiming for economic growth of 5.1% YoY to 5.5% YoY, an exchange rate of USD/IDR IDR15,300-15,900, and a 10-year government bond yield of 6.9%-7.2%.
• In Thursday's Indo-GB series trading, FR0101 and FR0100 garnered significant interest in outright transactions, with the highest trade volumes of IDR1.18tn and IDR0.91tn, respectively. Additionally, FR0081, FR0100, and PBS032 showed high trading frequency.
 
Market Forecast 
• Given the recent developments that unfolded within the global and domestic markets, we expect the 10-yr Indo GB yield to move within the range of 6.85-7.10% for today.
• Attractive Indo GB series to be traded today : FR0081, FR0059, FR0064, FR0099, FR0087, FR0074. 
 
 
Disclaimer On

FR81 FR59 FR64 FR99 FR87 FR74

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