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Company Update

06 Juni 2024

Fixed Income Report June 6, 2024

Global Market Updates     
• Wall Street equities closed higher on Jun 5, with the DJI rose by +0.25%, the S&P 500 advanced by +1.18%, and the Nasdaq closed up by +1.96%.
• US stocks surged to new records on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both closing at all-time highs. The rally was powered by the technology sector, especially chip stocks. Nvidia (NVDA) led the charge, jumping more than 5% and crossing a remarkable USD3tn market capitalization for the first time. Apple (AAPL) also re-entered the USD3tn club, achieving this milestone for the first time since January.
• The 10-yr UST yields fell by -4.0 bps to 4.29% reaching the lowest level since March, while the 2-yr yields slipped by -5.0 bps to 4.72%. Sharp drop in yields reflects a surge in market expectations for a Fed rate cut in September. CME FedWatch data shows 69% now anticipate a cut, up from below 50% last week.
• US MBA mortgage applications fell by -5.2% in the week ending May 31. The purchase mortgage sub-index declined by -4.4%, and the refinancing mortgage sub-index dropped by -6.8%. The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage increased slightly to 7.07% from 7.05% the week before
• The US labor market showed signs of moderation in May as the ADP National Employment Report revealed a job gain of +152,000. This figure falls short of analyst expectations of +175,000, indicating a potential slowdown in hiring activity.
• Industrial producer prices in the Euro Area fell by 5.7% YoY in April 2024, continuing the trend of annual deflation for the 12th consecutive month. This comes after a 7.8% decrease in March and was higher than the forecasted 5.1% decline.
Global bond yields were mixed on Wednesday: the German bund yield fell by -2.2 bps to 2.51%, while the 10-yr UK gilt yield rose slightly by +0.6 bps to 4.18%, and the Japanese 10-yr JGB yield slid by -1.5 bps to 1.00%.
 
Domestic Market Updates 
• The Indonesian benchmark series of LCY government bonds moved lower on Jun 5, with the 10-yr benchmark yield rose by +3.39 bps to 6.86%, while the 2-yr yield advanced by +5.04 bps to 6.44%.
• The IDR reversed its three-day streak of gains against the USD, as the USD/IDR fell by +0.40% to 16,285, alongside a 0.19% increase in the US dollar index to 104.30.
• Indonesia's external finances displayed resilience in Q1 2024. The International Investment Position (PII) data revealed a decline in net liabilities to USD253.0bn, compared to USD261.2bn in Q4-2023. This development indicates a stronger external financial position for Indonesia.
• In Wednesday's Indo-GB series trading, FR0100 and FR0087 garnered significant interest in outright transactions, with the highest trade volumes of IDR2.56tn and IDR1.75tn, respectively. Additionally, PBS032, FR0100, and FR081 showed high trading frequency.
 
Market Forecast 
• Given the recent developments that unfolded within the global and domestic markets, we expect the 10-yr Indo GB yield to move within the range of 6.85-7.10% for today.
• Attractive Indo GB series to be traded today : FR0081, FR0059, FR0094, FR0064, FR0099, FR0087. 
 
 
Disclaimer On

FR81 FR59 FR94 FR64 FR99 FR87

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