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Company Update

28 Juni 2024

Fixed Income Report June 28, 2024

Global Market Updates     
• Wall Street equities closed near flat on June 27, with the DJIA rose by +0.09%, the S&P 500 rose by +0.09% and the Nasdaq rose by +0.30%.
• Stock indexes rebounded on Thursday, which closed modestly higher. Weaker-than-expected US economic reports lowered bond yields and provided support for stocks, while Fed’s Bostic's comments about balanced risks and a potential rate cut in Q4 also supported stocks.
• The 10-yr UST yields fell by -3.0 bps to 4.29%, while the 2-yr yields eased by +1.0 bps to 4.70%. The USD44bn Treasury auction of 7-year T-notes on Thursday saw robust demand, achieving a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.58, higher than the 10-auction average of 2.54, which led to a decline in bond yields across tenors.
• US initial unemployment claims fell by -6,000 to 233,000, beating expectations of 235,000. Conversely, continuing claims rose by +18,000 to 1.839 million, a 2.5-year high, indicating weaker labor market conditions.
• US Q1 GDP was revised up to +1.4% from +1.3%, meeting expectations. Meanwhile, the Q1 core PCE price index increased to 3.7% from 3.6%, underscoring persistent inflationary pressures.
• The Eurozone June economic confidence index dipped to 95.9 in June 2024 from a slightly better-than-expected 96.1 in May, falling short of the anticipated 96.2. This decline highlights growing uncertainties and challenges in the region's economic outlook.
• Global bond yields were mixed on Thursday: the 10-yr German bund yield fell by -0.4 bps to 2.44%, the 10-yr UK gilt yield slid by -0.2 bps to 4.13%, and the Japanese 10-yr JGB yield closed up by +4.6 bps to 1.08%.
 
Domestic Market Updates 
• The Indonesian benchmark series of LCY government bond were mixed on June 27, with the 10-yr benchmark yield rose by +0.42 bps to 7.09%, while the 2-yr yield fell by -2.12 bps to 6.69%.
• The IDR strengthened against the USD on Thursday (USD/IDR -0.04% to 16,398). The Rupiah gained ground today following hawkish comments from Fed officials on inflation and interest rates, while the DXY edged down to 105.96.
• The MoF reported that state revenue by May 2024 was IDR1,123.5tn, meeting 40.1% of the annual budget target, but down -7.1% YoY from the same period in 2023. State expenditure reached IDR1,145.3tn, 34.4% of the budget target, showing a +14% YoY increase. Additionally, the primary balance shows a surplus of IDR184.2tn.
• In Thursday's Indo-GB series trading, FR0101and FR0100attracted notableinterest in outright transactions, with the highest trade volumes of IDR2.11tn and IDR1.55tn, respectively. Additionally, PBS032, FR0100, and FR0081werethe most actively traded series.

Market Forecast 
• Given the recent developments that unfolded within the global and domestic markets, we expect the 10-yr Indo GB yield to move within the range of 6.85-7.15% for today.
• Attractive Indo GB series to be traded today : FR0084, FR0101, FR0082, FR0074, FR0100, FR0098. 
 
 
Disclaimer On

FR84 FR101 FR82 FR74 FR100 FR98

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