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26 Juni 2024

Fixed Income Report June 26, 2024

Global Market Updates     
• Wall Street equities had another mixed performance on June 25, with the DJIA slide by -0.76%, the S&P 500 rose by +0.39% and the Nasdaq surged by +1.26%.
• Stock indexes seesawed on Tuesday, with a rally in mega-cap tech stocks lifted the overall market, while Carnival’s strong financial fueled more than 8% surged. The broader market sustained its gains after June's US consumer confidence exceeded expectations.
• The 10-yr UST yields eased by -2.0 bps to 4.25%, with the 2-yr yields dipped by -6.0 bps to 4.65%. T-notes rebounded Tuesday afternoon on strong demand for the Treasury’s USD69bn 2-year T-note auction, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.75, above the 10-yr auction average of 2.63.
• June's US consumer confidence index showed a minor decline to 100.4, however, it remained above the pre-pandemic level and exceeded analyst predictions of 100.0.
• The US home price growth moderated slightly in April, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-city index. The index rose 7.2% YoY, exceeding expectations of 7.0% but down from 7.46% in March.
• In Asia, Hong Kong's trade gap narrowed significantly in May 2024, with the deficit falling to USD12bn compared to USD26.4bn in the same month last year. This positive development is driven by a surge in exports.
• Global bond yields moved lower on Tuesday: the 10-yr German bund yield fell by -0.7 bps to 2.41%, the 10-yr UK gilt yield edged down by -0.2 bps to 4.08%, and the Japanese 10-yr JGB yield rose by +0.8 bps to 1.00%.
 
Domestic Market Updates 
• The Indonesian benchmark series of LCY government bond moved higher on June 25, with the 10-yr benchmark yield slipped by -1.22 bps to 7.07%, while the 2-yr yield fell by -3.82 bps to 6.71%.
• The IDR strengthened against the USD on Tuesday (USD/IDR fell by -0.12% to 16,375). Positive investor response to the SBN auction sent the Rupiah higher, with yields on government bonds dipping across maturities.
• In Tuesday’s SUN auction, investors secured IDR23.0tn in winning bids from a total of IDR56.3tn. The series auctioned included new issuances of SPN03240925 along with the reopening of SPN12250612, FR0101, FR0100, FR0098, FR0097, and FR0102. Notably, FR0100 achieved the highest awarded bid, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.31x, securing IDR9.80tn from a total bid of IDR22.63tn.
• The MoF reported that tax revenue from January to May 2024 reached IDR760.4tn, down -8.4% YoY (vs. IDR830.5tn in May 2023). This amount represents 38.2% of the 2024 state budget target. Additionally, the state budget had a deficit of IDR21.8tn (0.1% of GDP) as of May 2024.
• In Tuesday's Indo-GB series trading, FR0100 and FR0101 attracted notable interest in outright transactions, with the highest trade volumes of IDR15.93tn and IDR7.75tn, respectively. Additionally, FR0100, PBS032, and FR0098 were the most actively traded series.


 
Market Forecast 
• Given the recent developments that unfolded within the global and domestic markets, we expect the 10-yr Indo GB yield to move within the range of 6.85-7.15% for today.
• Attractive Indo GB series to be traded today : FR0084, FR0101, FR0082, FR0074, FR0080, FR0098. 
 
 
Disclaimer On

FR84 FR101 FR82 FR74 FR80 FR98

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