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25 Juni 2024

Fixed Income Report June 25, 2024

Global Market Updates     
• Wall Street equities closed with mixed results on June 24, with the DJIA grew by +0.67%, the S&P 500 fell by -0.31% and the Nasdaq dipped by -1.09%.
• Stock indexes closed mostly lower on Monday despite the Dow climbing to a 1-month high, driven by investor interest in energy and financials sectors. However, the Nasdaq fell to a 1-week low due to continued declines in chip heavyweight NVDA.
• The 10-yr UST yields moved flat at 4.25%, with the 2-yr yields remained unchanged at 4.70%. UST yields remained relatively unchanged as investors entered the final week of June, eagerly awaiting Friday's crucial inflation report that could significantly impact market direction.
• The Dallas Fed survey delivered mixed signals for US manufacturing. The index ticked up +4.3 points to -15.1, missing analyst forecasts of -15 but indicating a slight improvement from the previous month.
• In Euro, the German IFO Business Climate Index for June unexpectedly dipped to 88.6, down 0.7 points from the previous month and below the expected 89.6. This suggests a potential weakening in German business sentiment.
• Global bond yields finished mixed on Monday: the 10-yr German bund yield rose by +0.7 bps to 2.42%, the 10-yr UK gilt yield edged down by -0.2 bps to 4.08%, and the Japanese 10-yr JGB yield closed up by +1.0 bps to 1.00%.
 
Domestic Market Updates 
• The Indonesian benchmark series of LCY government bond were mixed on June 24, with the 10-yr benchmark yield declined by -3.65 bps to 7.09%, while the 2-yr yield advanced by +2.32 bps to 6.75%.
• The IDR strengthened against the USD on Monday (USD/IDR fell by -0.34% to 16,394). Rupiah gained positive momentum amidst global market uncertainty and fiscal policy sentiment, while the dollar index edged slightly lower to 105.68.
• The auction for SRBI on Monday saw a reduced demand, with total bids reaching to IDR32.6tn, down from IDR35.3tn in the previous auction. However, BI awarded higher winning bids (IDR31.9tn vs IDR28.5tn), and winning interest rates edged slightly higher up to 7,42% across all tenors.
• The government is set to conduct SUN auctions in local currency on Tuesday, aiming for an indicative target of IDR22tn. The auctions will feature new issuances of SPN03240925, along with the reopening of SPN12250612, FR101, FR100, FR98, FR97, and FR102. We anticipate the bid-to-cover ratio to fall between 1.5x and 2.3x.
• In Monday's Indo-GB series trading, FR0101 and FR0091 attracted tepid interest in outright transactions, with the highest trade volumes of IDR1.92tn and IDR1.90tn, respectively. Additionally, PBS032, FR0102, and FR0100 were the most actively traded series.

 
Market Forecast 
• Given the recent developments that unfolded within the global and domestic markets, we expect the 10-yr Indo GB yield to move within the range of 6.85-7.20% for today.
• Attractive Indo GB series to be traded today : FR0081, FR0101, FR0082, FR0074, FR0080, FR0098. 
 
 
Disclaimer On

FR81 FR101 FR82 FR74 FR80 FR98

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