Company Update

20 Juni 2024

Fixed Income Report June 20, 2024

Global Market Updates

• Wall Street was closed on June 19 in observance of Juneteenth. Meanwhile, global stock indexes closed lower: the DAX fell by -0.35%, the FTSE rose by +0.17%, and the Shanghai Composite index declined by -0.40%.

• The US Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported that the average interest rate for 30-year fixed mortgages fell to 6.94% in the week ended June 14th, 2024, down from 7.02% in the previous week. The average rate for a 30-year FHA-backed mortgage decreased to 6.79%, down from 6.87%.

• In Europe, the Eurozone's trade performance continues to improve. In April 2024, the current account surplus expanded sharply to EUR34.4bn, compared to just EUR5.5bn a year earlier. This positive shift is driven by a significant increase in both goods and services surpluses.

• The UK annual inflation rate slowed to 2% in May 2024, the lowest since July 2021, down from 2.3% in April and matching forecasts. The core inflation rate eased to 3.5%, the lowest since October 2021, from 3.9% in April.

• In Asia, Japanese exports surged 13.5% YoY to JPY8,276bn in May 2024, exceeding expectations of 13% and marking the strongest growth since November 2022. This six-month export streak is attributed to a weak yen and continued robust demand from overseas markets.

• Global bond yields were mixed on Wednesday: the German bund yield edged up by +0.8 bps to 2.40%, the 10-yr UK gilt yield rose by +1.9 bps to 4.07%, and the Japanese 10-yr JGB yield closed down by -1.1 bps to 0.93%.

Domestic Market Updates

• The Indonesian benchmark series of LCY government bond were mixed on June 19, with the 10-yr benchmark yield lowered by -5.07 bps to 7.12%, while the 2-yr yield surged by +5.17 bps to 6.70%.

• The IDR appreciated against the USD on Wednesday (USD/IDR fell by -0.21% to 16,365). The rupiah received a double boost, buoyed by Indonesia's record-extending 49th month of trade surplus and a weaker US dollar (DXY) closing at 105.25.

• Indonesia's trade surplus narrowed to USD2.93bn in May 2024, down from USD 3.56bn in April. Despite the decline, exports maintained their positive momentum, rising +2.50% YoY to USD22.33bn. Meanwhile, imports saw an -8.83% YoY decline to USD19.40bn.

• The SBSN auction on Wednesday saw tepid demand, garnering total bids of IDR16.33tn, down from IDR26.20tn previously. Meanwhile, the PBS032 secured the highest awarded amount of IDR2.95tn, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 1,57, out of a total awarded sum of IDR8.05tn.

• In Wednesday's Indo-GB series trading, FR0100 and FR0081 attracted notable interest in outright transactions, with the highest trade volumes of IDR5.66tn and IDR2.59tn, respectively. Additionally, FR0100, FR0097, and FR0081 were the most actively traded series.

Market Forecast
• Given the recent developments that unfolded within the global and domestic markets, we expect the 10-yr Indo GB yield to move within the range of 6.85-7.20% for today.
• Attractive Indo GB series to be traded today : FR0081, FR0095, FR0082, FR0074, FR0065, FR0098.

Disclaimer On

FR81 FR95 FR82 FR74 FR65 FR98

Back Download PDF

Beranda

Tentang Kami

Produk

Research

Company Update

Fixed Income Report June 20, 2024