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Company Update

13 Juni 2024

Fixed Income Report June 13, 2024

Global Market Updates     
• Wall Street equities saw mixed results on June 12, with the DJI gave up by -0.09%, the S&P 500 advanced by +0.85%, and the Nasdaq rose by +1.53%.
• US stocks advanced on Wednesday as investors absorbed the Fed's latest policy decision. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq set new record highs, while the Dow slipped into the red after the FOMC forecasted only 25 bps of rate cuts this year, down from 75 bps in March.
• The 10-yr UST yields dropped by -8.0 bps to 4.31%, while the 2-yr yields slipped by -6.0 bps to 4.75%. Bond yields declined amid signs of cooling inflation from the US May CPI report on Wednesday.
• The US CPI unexpectedly fell to 3.3% YoY in May 2024, marking a three-month low, compared to 3.4% YoY in April and the anticipated 3.4%. YoY Core inflation also slowed to 3.4% YoY, the lowest rate since April 2021, falling below the consensus estimate of 3.5% YoY.
• As expected, the FOMC unanimously voted on Wednesday to maintain the fed funds target range at 5.25%-5.50%. The committee stated that rate cuts are unlikely until there is greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%.
• In Asia, China's inflation rate stayed at 0.3% YoY in May 2024, under the 0.4% YoY forecast, marking four consecutive months of consumer inflation and suggesting a recovery in domestic demand. Meanwhile, core CPI rose 0.6% YoY, slightly less than April's 0.7% YoY.
• Global bond yields closed lower on Wednesday: the German bund yield fell by -9.2 bps to 2.53%, while the 10-yr UK gilt yield tumbled by -14.0 bps to 4.13%, and the Japanese 10-yr JGB yield dropped by -4.1 bps to 0.99%.
 
Domestic Market Updates 
• The Indonesian benchmark series of LCY government bond were mixed on June 12, with the 10-yr benchmark yield rose by +1.13 bps to 7.01%, while the 2-yr yield fell by -3.02 bps to 6.58%.
• The IDR slight weakened against the USD on Wednesday (USD/IDR rose by +0.03% to 16,295) as the broader market focuses on the Fed's interest rate decision, investors are waiting for signals from Fed officials regarding potential rate cuts this year.
• In Wednesday's SRBI auction, investors submitted total bids of IDR56.5tn, down from the previous auctions IDR65.2tn. However, Bank Indonesia awarded higher bids totaling IDR46.3tn, up from IDR21.9tn previously. The winning rates are now lower at 7.13%, 7.28%, and 7.33% for the 6, 9, and 12-month tenors, respectively.
• In Wednesday's Indo-GB series trading, FR0101 and FR100 garnered significant interest in outright transactions, with the highest trade volumes of IDR1.73tn and IDR1.54tn, respectively. Additionally, FR0100, FR102, and PBS032 showed high trading frequency.
 
Market Forecast 
• Given the recent developments that unfolded within the global and domestic markets, we expect the 10-yr Indo GB yield to move within the range of 6.85-7.10% for today.
• Attractive Indo GB series to be traded today : FR0081, FR0056, FR0064, FR0101, FR0087, FR0100. 
 
 
Disclaimer On

FR81 FR56 FR64 FR101 FR87 FR100

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