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Company Update

04 Juli 2024

Fixed Income Report July 4, 2024

Global Market Updates     
• Wall Street equities ended mixed on July 3, with the DJIA dropped by -0.06%, the S&P 500 rose by +0.51% and the Nasdaq advanced by +0.88%.
• Stocks ended Wednesday's holiday-shortened session on a high note, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hitting new records. Trading closed at 1 p.m. EST and will remain closed Thursday for the July 4 holiday. T-note yields fell, supporting market gains as weak US economic data raised hopes for Fed rate cuts this year.
• The 10-yr UST yields declined by -7.0 bps to 4.36%, while the 2-yr yields slipped by -3.0 bps to 4.71%. Treasury yields dropped on Wednesday following weak economic data in the labor market and services industry, raising hopes for an earlier Fed interest rate cut.
• The US Jun ADP employment rose by +150,000, below the expected +165,000. Meanwhile, weekly initial unemployment claims increased by +4,000 to 238,000, and continuing claims climbed by +26,000 to a 2.5-year high of 1.858 million, both exceeding forecasts.
• The US June ISM Services Index dropped by -5.0 points to 48.8, falling short of the expected 52.7 and marking the steepest contraction in four years.
• Eurozone producer prices experienced a steeper decline in May 2024. Prices fell by -0.2% MoM and -4.2% YoY, missing expectations of a -0.1% MoM and a -4.1% YoY decrease.
• Global bond yields were mixed on Wednesday: the 10-yr German bund yield fell by -1.7 bps to 2.58%, the 10-yr UK gilt yield dropped by -7.6 bps to 4.17%, and the Japanese 10-yr JGB yield climbed by +1.5 bps to 1.10%.
 
Domestic Market Updates 
• The Indonesian benchmark series of LCY government bond were mixed on July 3, with the 10-yr benchmark yield edged down by -0.95 bps to 7.09%, while the 2-yr yield rose by +2.10 bps to 6.69%.
• The IDR appreciated against the USD on Wednesday (USD/IDR fell by -0.15% to 16,370). The dollar index fell by -0.11% following dovish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who hinted at a potential easing cycle later this year, providing additional support for the rupiah.
• The SRBI auction on Wednesday saw higher demand, with bids totaling IDR27.2tn, up from IDR23.8tn in the last auction. BI awarded higher winning bids at IDR18.8tn compared to IDR18.6tn previously, with winning rates remaining flat at 7.32-7.53%.
• According to data from the Ministry of Manpower (3/7), the number of workers laid off in May reached 8,393 people, with a total of 27,222 layoffs in the first five months of this year. This indicates an increase of 48.5% compared to the same period last year (Bloomberg).
• In Wednesday's Indo-GB series trading, FR0100 and FR0101 attracted notable interest in outright transactions, with the highest trade volumes of IDR3.20tn and IDR1.93tn, respectively. Additionally, PBS032, FR0100, and PBS038 were the most actively traded series. 


Market Forecast 
• Given the recent developments that unfolded within the global and domestic markets, we expect the 10-yr Indo GB yield to move within the range of 6.85-7.15% for today.
• Attractive Indo GB series to be traded today : FR0084, FR0101, FR0087, FR0074, FR0075, FR0098. 
 
 
Disclaimer On

FR84 FR101 FR87 FR74 FR75 FR98

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