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Company Update

03 Juli 2024

Fixed Income Report July 3, 2024

Global Market Updates     
• Wall Street equities posted further gains on July 2, with the DJIA rose by +0.41%, the S&P 500 surged by +0.62% and the Nasdaq closed up by +0.84%.
• Tuesday saw stock indexes finish moderately higher, with stocks gaining from lower bond yields after Fed Chair Powell remarked on the resumption of disinflation and the Fed's flexibility with interest rate cuts due to a strong economy and job market. Additionally, Tesla's 10% surge and a rally in chip stocks lifted the market.
• The 10-yr UST yields fell by -5.0 bps to 4.43%, while the 2-yr yields declined by -3.0 bps to 4.74%. T-notes initially gained on Powell's disinflation comments but retreated as US May JOLTS job openings unexpectedly rose, signaling Fed policy hawkishness.
• Job openings in the US rose by a surprising 221,000 to reach 8.14 million in May 2024. This outpaces predictions of 7.91 million and comes after a downward revision to April's data, which showed the lowest openings in three years at 7.919 million.
• In the Eurozone, June CPI eased to +2.5% YoY from +2.6% YoY in May, aligning with expectations. Conversely, June core CPI increased by +2.9% YoY, remaining unchanged from May and exceeding the expected decline to +2.8% YoY.
• In Asia, The au Jibun Bank Japan Services PMI for June 2024 was revised down to 49.4 from the initial flash figure of 49.8, marking the first contraction in the service sector since August 2022.
• Global bond yields were mixed on Tuesday: the 10-yr German bund yield edged down by -0.5 bps to 2.60%, the 10-yr UK gilt yield fell by -3.3 bps to 4.25%, and the Japanese 10-yr JGB yield climbed by +2.5 bps to 1.09%.
 
Domestic Market Updates 
• The Indonesian benchmark series of LCY government bond were mixed on July 2, with the 10-yr benchmark yield advanced by +4.95 bps to 7.10%, while the 2-yr yield slid by -0.77 bps to 6.67%.
• The IDR retreated against the USD on Tuesday (USD/IDR rose by +0.45% to 16,395). The sell-off in US and European bond markets yesterday pushed bond yields significantly higher, resulting in a renewed weakening of the Rupiah.
• The SBSN auction on Tuesday saw higher demand, garnering total bids of IDR17.99tn, up from IDR16.33tn previously. Meanwhile, the PBS038 secured the highest awarded amount of IDR4.14tn, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 1.28, out of a total awarded sum of IDR7.18tn.
• In Tuesday's Indo-GB series trading, FR0100 and PBS038 attracted notable interest in outright transactions, with the highest trade volumes of IDR3.83tn and IDR2.40tn, respectively. Additionally, PBS032, FR0100, and PBS038 were the most actively traded series.


Market Forecast 
• Given the recent developments that unfolded within the global and domestic markets, we expect the 10-yr Indo GB yield to move within the range of 6.85-7.15% for today.
• Attractive Indo GB series to be traded today : FR0084, FR0101, FR0087, FR0096, FR0100, FR0098. 
 
 
Disclaimer On

FR84 FR101 FR87 FR96 FR100 FR98

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