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Company Update

26 Juli 2024

Fixed Income Report July 26, 2024

Global Market Updates     
• Wall Street settled mixed on July 25, with the DJIA edged up by +0.20%, the S&P 500 slipped by -0.51% and the Nasdaq fell by -0.93%.
• US stocks extended losses on Thursday as chipmakers underperformed and negative earnings news weighed on sentiment. Investors remained cautious about the economic outlook despite upbeat data, while a minor dip in Treasury yields provided a modest offset.
• The 10-yr UST yields fell by -1.0 bps to 4.27%, with the 2-yr yields rose by +3.0 bps to 4.41%. T-note prices were weighed down by Thursday’s bearish US economic reports and additional supply pressure from the Treasury’s USD44 billion 7-year T-note auction.
• US economic growth exceeded forecasts in Q2, with GDP rising at a +2.8% annualized rate, up from +1.4% in the previous quarter. This shows demand remains resilient despite higher borrowing costs. The report showed positive inflation trends with the core PCE price index fell to +2.9% from +3.7% in Q1.
• US weekly initial unemployment claims decreased by 8,000 to 235,000, indicating a stronger labor market than the expected 238,000. Weekly continuing claims also fell by 16,000 to 1.851 million, better than the anticipated 1.868 million.
• In Europe, the Ifo Business Climate indicator for Germany decreased to 87 in July 2024, the lowest since February and down from 88.6 in June and below the expected 88.9. The decrease was broad-based across manufacturing, services, trade, and construction.
• In Asia, the People’s Bank of China unexpectedly lowered its one-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) rate by -20 bps to 2.3% on July 26th, marking the first cut in nearly a year and the biggest since April 2020.
• Global bond yields moved lower on Thursday: the 10-yr German bund yield declined by -2.6 bps to 2.41%, the 10-yr UK gilt yield slid by -2.6 bps to 4.13%, and the Japanese 10-yr JGB yield closed down by -2.2 bps to 1.06%.
 
Domestic Market Updates 
• The Indonesian benchmark series of LCY government moved higher on July 25, with the 10-yr benchmark yield fell by -1.01 bps to 6.98%, while the 2-yr yield slid by -1.04 bps to 6.69%.
• Global risk-off sentiment and anticipation of US Q2 economic reports drove the Indonesian Rupiah lower on Thursday. The USD/IDR exchange rate increased by +0.22% to 16,250 as investors sought safe-haven assets.
• The rupiah weakened amid pressure from the stock market, with the IHSG dropping to 7,240. Meanwhile, the government bond market showed sideways movement, with short-term yields declining.
• In Thursday's Indo-GB series trading, FR0081, FR0100, and FR0101 attracted notable interest in outright transactions, with the highest trade volumes of IDR2.71tn, IDR2.68tn, and IDR2.10tn, respectively. Additionally, PBS032, FR097, and FR0100 were the most frequently traded series.

Market Forecast 
• Given the recent developments that unfolded within the global and domestic markets, we expect the 10-yr Indo GB yield to move within the range of 6.85-7.10% for today.
• Attractive Indo GB series to be traded today : FR0081, FR0084, FR0056, FR0100, FR0098. 
 
 
Disclaimer On

FR81 FR84 FR56 FR100 FR98

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