Beranda

RESEARCH

Company Update

02 Juli 2024

Fixed Income Report July 2, 2024

Global Market Updates     
• Wall Street equities closed higher on July 1, with the DJIA climbed by +0.13%, the S&P 500 rose by +0.27% and the Nasdaq ended up by +0.83%.
• Stock indexes rose moderately on Monday, led by mega-cap tech stocks. Gains were limited by higher bond yields, with the 10-year T-note yield reaching a 4-week high. Concerns over economic momentum arose after declines in the June ISM manufacturing index and May construction spending.
• The 10-yr UST yields surged by +12.0 bps to 4.48%, while the 2-yr yields rose by +6.0 bps to 4.77%. Treasuries fell on Monday amid rising inflation expectations, with the 10-year breakeven rate reaching a 3.5-week high at 2.32%. Additionally, speculation about a potential Trump victory leading to steeper yield curves.
• The US June ISM manufacturing index fell to a four-month low of 48.5, below the expected 49.1, marking the third consecutive month of contractions. The ISM price paid sub-index also dropped to a six-month low of 52.1, missing the forecast of 55.9.
• The US construction spending for May 2024 unexpectedly declined. The seasonally adjusted annual rate fell by -0.1% MoM, missing the expectations of a 0.2% increase.
• In Euro, the S&P Manufacturing PMI for the Eurozone in June 2024 was revised up to 45.8 from 45.6, but remains below 50, indicating continued contraction.
Global bond yields moved higher on Friday: the 10-yr German bund yield surged by +10.7 bps to 2.60%, the 10-yr UK gilt yield grew by +4.2 bps to 4.17%, and the Japanese 10-yr JGB yield closed up by +0.4 bps to 1.06%.
 
Domestic Market Updates 
• The Indonesian benchmark series of LCY government bond moved higher on July 1, with the 10-yr benchmark yield surged by +1.0 bps to 7.06%, while the 2-yr yield rose by +0.7 bps to 6.65%.
• The IDR appreciated against the USD on Monday (USD/IDR -0.32% to 16,322). The Rupiah closed stronger at the start of the second semester, driven by subdued domestic inflation data and slowing US PCE data.
• BPS noted a deflation of 0.08% MoM in June 2024, as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased to 106.28 from 106.37 in May 2024. On a yearly basis, inflation for June 2024 was 2.51% YoY, with calendar year inflation at 1.07% YtD.
• In Monday's Indo-GB series trading, FR0101 and FR0081 attracted notable interest in outright transactions, with the highest trade volumes of IDR4.03tn and IDR3.79tn, respectively. Additionally, PBS032, FR0100, and FR0081 were the most actively traded series. 

Market Forecast 
• Given the recent developments that unfolded within the global and domestic markets, we expect the 10-yr Indo GB yield to move within the range of 6.85-7.15% for today.
• Attractive Indo GB series to be traded today : FR0084, FR0101, FR0087, FR0074, FR0100, FR0092. 
 
 
Disclaimer On

FR84 FR101 FR87 FR74 FR100 FR92

Back Download PDF
Copyright © 2024 MNC Sekuritas. All Right Reserved. A Member of MNC Group