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Company Update

19 Juli 2024

Fixed Income Report July 19, 2024

Global Market Updates     
• Wall Street closed lower on July 18, as the DJIA slipped by -1.29%, the S&P 500 dropped by -0.78% and the Nasdaq closed down by -0.70%.
• Stock indexes fell Thursday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hitting 2-week and 3-week lows, respectively, due to declines in mega-cap tech stocks and money-center banks. Despite an early boost from chip stocks following TSMC's strong Q2 results and raised 2024 revenue forecasts, the market reversed gains.
• The 10-yr UST yields surged by +4.0 bps to 4.20%, while the 2-yr yields rose by +4.0 bps to 4.46%. While the upcoming USD213 billion Treasury auction put pressure on T-notes, losses on Thursday were restrained by higher-than-expected US weekly unemployment claims, indicating labor market weakness and dovish Fed policy.
• US weekly initial unemployment claims climbed by 20,000 to 243,000, surpassing the expected 229,000 and signaling a weaker labor market. Continuing claims also rose by 20,000 to a 2.5-year high of 1.867 million, above the forecast of 1.856 million, further reflecting labor market weakness.
• The European Central Bank (ECB) announced its decision to maintain the main refinancing rate at 4.25% as widely anticipated. The ECB emphasized its commitment to keeping borrowing costs restrictive until inflation returns to its target level of 2%.
• In Asia, the annual inflation rate in Japan stayed at 2.8% YoY in June 2024, the highest since February. Core inflation rose to 2.6% YoY, its highest in three months, bolstering expectations of a possible central bank rate hike
• Global bond yields were mixed on Thursday: the 10-yr German bund yield rose by +1.1 bps to 2.43%, the 10-yr UK gilt yield slid by -1.2 bps to 4.06%, and the Japanese 10-yr JGB yield closed up by +1.2 bps to 1.04%.
 
Domestic Market Updates 
• The Indonesian benchmark series of LCY government bond were mixed on July 18, with the 10-yr benchmark yield rose by +0.41 bps to 6.92%, while the 2-yr yield slid by -4.65 bps to 6.65%.
• The IDR weakened against the USD at the close, with the USD/IDR climbing 0.35% to 16,155, influenced by the DXY rising to 103.80 and selling pressure in long-term government bonds (SBN).
• The Business Activity Survey (SKDU) results indicate improved performance in 2Q24, reflected in a Weighted Net Balance (SBT) of 17.20%, up from 14.11% in 1Q24. Respondents anticipate a slight decline in business activities in 3Q24, with an SBT of 15.91%.
• In Thursday's Indo-GB series trading, FR0100, FR0096, and FR0101 attracted significant interest in outright transactions, with the highest trade volumes of IDR3.53tn, IDR2.30tn, and IDR1.69tn, respectively. Additionally, PBS032, FR0100, and PBS038 were the most frequently traded series.

Market Forecast 
• Given the recent developments that unfolded within the global and domestic markets, we expect the 10-yr Indo GB yield to move within the range of 6.85-7.10% for today.
• Attractive Indo GB series to be traded today : FR0081, FR0084, FR0056, FR0075, FR0092. 
 
 
Disclaimer On

FR81 FR84 FR56 FR75 FR92

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