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Company Update

01 Juli 2024

Fixed Income Report July 1, 2024

Global Market Updates     
• Wall Street equities finished lower on June 28, with the DJIA fell by -0.12%, the S&P 500 eased by -0.41% and the Nasdaq closed down by -0.71%.
• Stock indexes ended moderately lower on Friday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq pulling back from all-time highs. Stronger-than-expected June MNI Chicago PMI and consumer sentiment reports drove the 10-year T-note yield to a two-week high, weighing on stocks.
• The 10-yr UST yields rose by +7.0 bps to 4.36%, while the 2-yr yields increased by +1.0 bps to 4.71%. T-notes reversed early gains and declined after the May core PCE index rose at its slowest pace in over three years, increasing expectations for Fed rate cuts this year.
• In May, US personal spending increased by +0.2% MoM, which was below the expected +0.3%. Meanwhile, personal income rose by +0.5% MoM, exceeding the forecast of +0.4%.
• The US core PCE price index for May eased to +2.6% YoY from +2.8% in April, aligning with expectations and marking the slowest increase in three years.
• In Asia, China’s NBS Manufacturing PMI remained steady at 49.5 in June, marking the fourth contraction this year. Meanwhile, the Non-Manufacturing PMI declined to 50.5 from 51.1 in May, below market expectations of 51.0.
• Global bond yields were mixed on Friday: the 10-yr German bund yield rose by +5.2 bps to 2.50%, the 10-yr UK gilt yield grew by +4.2 bps to 4.17%, and the Japanese 10-yr JGB yield closed down by -1.9 bps to 1.06%.
 
Domestic Market Updates 
• The Indonesian benchmark series of LCY government bond moved higher on June 28, with the 10-yr benchmark yield declined by -4.7 bps to 7.04%, while the 2-yr yield fell by -2.8 bps to 6.66%.
• The IDR appreciated against the USD on Friday (USD/IDR -0.14% to 16,375). The Rupiah strengthened in the last session of June, along with other Asian currencies, while the DXY edged up slightly to 106.
• Bank Indonesia reported based on transactions from June 24–27, 2024, non-residents recorded a net purchase of IDR19.69tn, consisting of a net buys of IDR8.30tn in the SBN market, a net buys of IDR2.23tn in the stock market, and a net buys of IDR9.16tn in SRBI.
• The SRBI auction on Friday experienced lower demand, with bids totaling IDR23.8tn, down from IDR26.8tn in the last auction. BI awarded lower winning bids at IDR18.6tn compared to IDR20.8tn previously, and winning rates increased slightly to 7.32-7.52%.
• In Friday's Indo-GB series trading, FR0101 and FR0081 attracted notable interest in outright transactions, with the highest trade volumes of IDR4.03tn and IDR3.79tn, respectively. Additionally, PBS032, FR0100, and FR0081 were the most actively traded series.

Market Forecast 
• Given the recent developments that unfolded within the global and domestic markets, we expect the 10-yr Indo GB yield to move within the range of 6.85-7.15% for today.
• Attractive Indo GB series to be traded today : FR0084, FR0101, FR0087, FR0074, FR0100, FR0092. 
 
 
Disclaimer On

FR84 FR101 FR87 FR74 FR100 FR92

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