Global Market Update
• US treasury notes yield increased along the curve starting this week upon the resumption of trading post Easter holiday.
• The benchmark 10-year UST note yield rose slightly by 1 bps to 3.41% on Monday (04/10/23).
• Meanwhile, the benchmark 2-year UST note yield increased 2 bps and finally hit 4.00% again at the same time.
• US equity indices closed with mix result last night. The DJI and the S&P 500 gained 0.30% and 0.10% respectively.
• However, the Nasdaq Composite, a proxy of US tech stocks marginally fell 0.03%.
• The risk of global slowdown again show up after China’s economic data release.
• The annual inflation rate of China unexpectedly slowing down to 0.7% YoY in Mar-23 from 1.0% YoY in Feb-23, marking the lowest pace since Sep-21.
• Furthermore, China’s producer prices plunged at the rate of 2.5% YoY in Mar- 23, faster than 1.4% YoY contraction in the previous month and marking 6- straight months of contraction since Oct-22.
Domestic Market Update
• The domestic LCY government bonds were traded lower starting this week.
• Yield on the benchmark 10-year (FR0096) increased slightly by 1 bps to 6.66% yesterday.
• The IDR continued to strengthen against USD and closed at IDR 14,902/USD. • Indonesia’s 5 year CDS also stabilized below 100 bps and stood at 94.18 bps yesterday.
• Bank Indonesia reported FX reserves position jumped to USD145.2bn equivalent to 6.4 months of import in Mar-23 on the back of tax revenue and withdrawal of external debt.
Market Projection
• Given the recent development on global and domestic market, we expect the 10 year Indo GB yield to move within a range of 6.60-6.80% for today.
• Attractive Indo GB series to be traded today : FR0063, FR0070, FR0077, FR0081, FR0084, FR0072, FR0079, FR0083.
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