Global Market Update
• The 10-year U.S. treasury yield rose and topping 1.60% despite the disappointing Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data in September-21.
• The NFP rose by just 194,000 in September-21. Lower than consensus estimate of more than 450,000.
• The unemployment rate fell to 4.8% and already in the same level in the late 2016. The unemployment rate figure was better than consensus estimate at 5.1%.
• The government payrolls surprisingly dropped by 123,000 while private jobs increased by 317,000.
• Wages for U.S. workers keep rising with 0.60% monthly gain or equivalent to 4.60% YoY increase.
• The Fed is expected to stick on its plan rolling back its asset purchase and will likely to announce bond taper in November-21.
• U.S. equity market closed lower last Friday (10/08/21) with DJI slightly declined by 0.03%. While S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite dropped by 0.19% and 0.51% respectively.
• The U.K. and European countries benchmark government bond yields also increased following U.S. treasury yield hike to the highest level since June-21.
Domestic Market Update
• The 10-year Indo GB closed 1 bps higher to 6.22% on Friday (10/08/21). The benchmark yield was still in our forecast range of 6.20%-6.30%.
• The 5-year Indo CDS increased to 87.36 bps last week. Rupiah slightly depreciated against USD to IDR 14.223/USD.
• Bank Indonesia (BI) reported, consumer confidence index rose to 95.5 in September-21 from 77.3 in August-21.
• Improving consumer sentiment is in line with what we have expected, along with gradual reopening of the economy. Should the Covid-19 cases continue to decline and other epidemiologic indicator improve, we expect consumer confidence will likely to bounce back above 100.
Market Projection
• We expect the 10 year Indo GB yield to increase and tend to move within range of 6.20% - 6.30% today.
• Attractive Indo GB series to be traded today : FR0086, FR0090, FR0082, FR0087, FR0091, FR0068, FR0080, FR0072
Disclaimer
